Hey guys, Tim VP here again. I'll be representing Insights in another experts league starting Monday. It's the Fantasy Industry League of Experts hosted by MonsterDraft.com. I have the number eight pick and am still thinking what strategy I'll take at this point. Quarterbacks rate high in this league so could go with Manning, but not sure. McNabb would have met or exceeded Manning last year with a full season, so he could be had later. Anyway, if you want to follow along, comment, give thoughts, ask questions, etc., feel free...will be fun to have you along. I'll be checking back as I can and respond in kind. Also stand by for the SOFA leagues which will be drafting soon.

Here's the link to follow the draft!

Thanks, always fun to follow along.

If Manning is there at #8, I wouldn't think twice about taking him. At that point, the RB class is pretty deep. You are giving yourself a big leg up starting with the top QB in the game. You may sacrifice your #2 RB position but I think the point differential from Manning to a later QB is going to compensate for it.

Kind of my thinking too Skip, and likely what I'll do. I did that with the 11th pick in another experts earlier this year and ended up with McGehee in second round, so strange things can happen. Plus with this scoring system there is much value there. Still not 100%, but leaning that way if he's there. Now, question is, what if he's not?

quote:

Now, question is, what if he's not?

Best RB available. I agree if its a QB friendly league I would go Manning. If he's not there then the best RB available on your list would be the choice.

It's a standard scoring league unless I'm missing something - 4 pts per passing TD and 1 pt per 20 yards passing. Even as a huge Colts fan there is no way I could justify taking him at 1.8. It's only a 12 team league with only 1 starting QB. The value isn't even close to taking Manning anywhere in the first round. If he is still there at 2.5 then maybe you take him but if there wasn't an RB I really like at that point then I would probably rather look at WR considering that you have to start 3.

What about this league makes you think QBs are of such great value that you would even think of Manning at 1.8?

Actually, I saw a great write-up a few days ago where it did a statistical analysis of taking a top QB (in this case Manning) as early as #5. The results basically came out saying that despite the expert drum which beats RB/RB in rounds 1 and 2 that there is more value in taking Manning in the latter part of round 1 and ending up without the RB there than taking the #8 RB. It used the current average draft position and points of those players, etc. It was a very good read. If I can find it, I will post it. In fact, I believe it even addressed the possibiliy of taking QB/WR in rounds 1 and 2...

Taken from an article at FBG:

Take a look at Manning's OVERALL fantasy finish in each of his seasons:

* � 1998 -- 40th
* � 1999 -- 14th
* � 2000 -- 11th
* � 2001 -- 16th
* � 2002 -- 24th
* � 2003 -- 30th
* � 2004 -- 2nd
* � 2005 -- 34th
* � 2006 -- 4th

The good news is that in two of the last three seasons, Manning was a top-5 overall player meaning that he not only justified his 1st round ADP, but was highly productive if you took him in the 2nd half of the 1st round. The bad news is Manning has failed to live up to a 1st round grade in six of nine seasons. If you consider that the only two times he finished among the top 5 were a) when he threw 49 touchdowns and b) last year when he rushed for 4 rushing TDs, and you consider that neither feat is likely to be repeated, it stands to reason that IN SPITE of Manning's greatness, you may want to let someone else draft him in the 1st round while you focus on better value.

The problem with taking Manning early is that you need to hit on your RB in 2nd round. If you miss, then you're behind the 8-ball. As good as Manning is over the course of the whole season, on a week-to-week basis, he just doesn't outscore other QB's by enough to matter most weeks.

As the draft goes, it's harder and harder to land a good RB with each round that passes. Your chances of landing a stud RB in the 2nd round are lower than the 1st. They are considerably lower in the 3rd and so on. He's just not worth the price he carries.

Wouldn't it merit the same "overall fantasy finish" study on every player? Let's look at last season for a moment:

Shaun Alexander, Edgerrin James, Ronnie Brown, Carnell Williams, Willis McGahee, Clinton Portis, LaMont Jordan...

According to 2006 ADP, those guys were in the top 12 RBs taken. Taking an RB in the first round brings no guarantees of success. Just because experts seem to believe it is the most reliable theory, is there actual hard evidence that bears it out? Simply looking at a single player and saying he hasn't shown himself to be a 1st round pick ignores similar studies on the entire rest of the NFL.

And to be fair, was Manning projected as a first round pick as far back as '98? Don't think so...

Skip, I didn't write the article. But I read something similar to what you were referring to and it's actually been shown in more in depth analysis and statistical evidence that he is NOT a good pick for the 1st round unless he has both 1) A year like 2004 and 2) Other QB's fall very far behind.

The reason it's not relevant to the other players you listed is that they are all RB's. What makes Manning different is that he's the only QB that goes in the 1st round. Because most leagues have scoring that heavily favors RB's in addition to the scarcity of them (when you only start 1 QB but start 2-3 RB's), the premium is what makes taking RB's the ideal method in the 1st round. In addition, the scoring among QB's generally just doesn't vary as much from top to bottom as it does at the RB spot.

The longer you wait to pick a RB, as I posted above, the less likely you are to hit on one and Manning often times isn't enough to compensate for it.

Awesome stuff so far guys...whole point behind this, to get folks talking. I must mention this though for any of you who haven't followed my drafting over the years. I'm often somewhat unorthodox in my thinking, but I always defend my logic - even when it winds up flawed. That being said, good thoughts on Manning vs the RB issue. Here's where I stand.

All bring up good points. Just went out and rechecked top players and realized I must have been thinking of another league I'm in when i mentioned what I did earlier. Not sure there, anyway, RB would be the logical first round choice...for sure if I was drafting top 6. As I'm 8, I've put in 8 RBs on my list (work tomorrow, so put in predraft for first three rounds). Here's the list...I duplicated it three times, knowing most if not all on there will be gone by my third pick...but one NEVER knows in these things.

Tomlinson, Ladainian SDC RB
Jackson, Steven CAR RB
Gore, Frank SFO RB
Westbrook, Brian PHI RB
Johnson, Larry KCC RB
Parker, Willie PIT RB
Addai, Joseph IND RB
McGahee, Willis BAL RB
Smith, Steve CAR WR
Harrison, Marvin IND WR
Owens, Terrell DAL WR
Johnson, Chad CIN WR
Holt, Torry STL WR
Wayne, Reggie IND WR
Houshmandzadeh, T.J. CIN WR
Jones, Thomas NYJ RB
Henry, Travis DEN RB
Williams, Roy DET WR

Now, a few comments and things to notice. First, no QBs. I feel quite strongly that a guy like Kitna will be available in the fourth round, maybe Brady even. Even Rivers, Brees or Bulger, all of which will be top ten finishers at their position.

Second, if I garner any 3 of the players on the list I have, my season will be competitive and I'll be able to have a solid chance at the prize. If you read my article "The Unexpected Draft" you know where I'm coming from on the running back thing. I have a hard time finding more than six to eight RBs that don't have some major question mark...even if it is just them being unproven. To me, a top notch, proven receiver is as solid as some of the higher mid-tier backs. This does not mean I don't understand and believe what gian says about probabilities regarding backs, it's just that once you get into a certain tier of RBs there's just too many ?s to make them set apart from any others. For instance, Lamont Jordan was a first or second round pick in most leagues last season and bombed, so he's going seriously late this year, but still should be the main guy in Oakland this year...and their offense should be a little bit better at least. Fred Taylor is dropping but he'll still get yards and a few TDs as long as he's healthy...so there are fliers to be had late that have just as many questions as a Brandon Jacobs, a Jamal Lewis, a Jones-Drew and host of others out there once you're past the initial solid few. Heck, even Alexander's a huge question mark this year...thus he's off my list. I don't want the headache.

Anyway...feel free to comment or question on my list. I'll be back later today to check.

Ok, one more add here. Just put in a list of QBs for my fourth round pick...and added Antonio Gates to the top of my third round list. Forgot we have to start a TE...and have to grab Gates if he isn't gone already...if he is I'll grab Witten and or McMichael later on. Here's the list of QBs. And they are (excepting Vick) the top eight as far as weekly average last year in this scoring system...and guys I'd be interested in regardless. Obviously most won't be there, but if one still is in the fourth I want him. McNabb actually had a better weekly average than Manning by two whole points...but still dropped him on the health issue. Either way, fourth round? A steal.

Manning, Peyton IND QB
Brees, Drew NOS QB
Bulger, Marc STL QB
Palmer, Carson CIN QB
Brady, Tom NEP QB
McNabb, Donovan PHI QB
Kitna, Jon DET QB

quote:

It's a standard scoring league unless I'm missing something - 4 pts per passing TD and 1 pt per 20 yards passing. Even as a huge Colts fan there is no way I could justify taking him at 1.8. It's only a 12 team league with only 1 starting QB.

I just want to point out that the scoring system is skewed towards QBs because it only gives -1 per interception. However, this works against players like Manning who make fewer mistakes. If anything, the -1 instead of -2 per interception bumps up the value of guys like Kitna or Favre, who are turnover prone. It seems the discussion has already leaned to this conclusion, but I'll add one more that in this league taking Manning in the first round would be a mistake.

Good points. The fact that you can get a Kitna or Bulger pretty late relatively speaking is the exact value I'm talking about. And as you said about once you get past a certain tier of RB's, there's too many question marks. Which is exactly the reason why the later you wait, the more likely you are to NOT hit. While there is no such thing as a sure-thing, 1st round picks overall perform much better than 2nd and 3rd round picks. Yes, there's always 1st round picks that bust (usually about half), but there's considerably more in the 2nd, and so on.

As far as your list, I would not be surprised to see Willie Parker fall to you at 8th. I think he's one of the safest picks in the top 10 and he seems to be dropping low. Overall, I like your list a lot. Your top 7 RB's are a great start and I would not be surprised in the least if one of those fell to you. Good luck with the draft.

Oh, and grab Travis Henry in the 2nd if he's there.

Would have taken you for a Reggie Bush fan, not Henry, living in NO. Anyway, I'm just up around the corner from you in Biloxi area.

I'm not big on Addai...too unproven at that spot...but not much else to do there...so have to put him there...hope you're right and Parker falls.

Having thought back over my initial thinking, I will also have to agree that taking Manning assumes he is far ahead of the rest of the options. And he probably won't be. The question I would have is just who is the #8 RB? If you can land someone like Westbrook, Parker, Alexander, I think those are good options.

If I had my preference in most every league, I would opt for Tom Brady a couple rounds after Manning. The thing I like him more than any other QB is consistency. While I don't expect him to finish #1, I would expect him as a top 3. There is strong sentiment for guys like Palmer, Brees, Bulger, Kitna, and others... What I like more about Brady is he produces consistently regardless of the players he has to worth with. The rest of these guys have produced with loads of talent to work with. This season Brady has more options than he has had in the past. I think he has a legitimate shot for once to reach the 30 TD mark. I have him ranked as my #2 QB.

I find your rankings very intriguing every year. Owens as the #3? Ahead of Chad Johnson... I can understand the arguments, but I don't have him that high. Biggest risk among the top WRs.

And I am going to remain in the Thomas Jones is overrated camp all season. I believe I demonstrated in another thread why I think he is being rated too high. Shaun Alexander is conspicuously missing. In a redraft league, he should still be considered right near the top 5. No way would I be ranking him behind Jones or Henry.

As an owner of Antonio Gates in a keeper league, I actually am starting to think that 3rd round is going to be too high for him this season. There are several very good TEs available this year and I don't think using an early pick on one is a wise choice. After keeping him this season in the FIKL (3 keepers), I had a lot of second thoughts about having done so.

Skip, please explain to me this "risk" about TO. Everyone keeps repeating it but it just simply isn't there. The guy is going into his 12th season. The ONLY time he's had any issues was in 2005 with Philly when they suspended him. That's it. That's one of the few times that's ever even happened in the NFL, let alone the single occasion to TO. Yes, he's had numerous other "issues" but he's always produced on the field regardless. Aside from 2005, he's had 6 straight 1100+ yd seasons and FIVE 13+ TD seasons (the other was 9 TDs).

There simply isn't anything risky about him. What happened in Philly in 2005 is NOT the norm and does NOT make him risky. Will he be in the media again with some sort of antics? Yeah, probably. Might he get in a fight with Romo or Wade Phillips? Quite possibly. Will he be suspended and miss time like what happened to him ONCE in 11 years? Highly unlikely. This "risky" tag he has really has no merits and causes him to drop and provide fantastic value to whoever gets him. Whoever took the "risk" on him last year was rewarded with 1180 yds and 13 TDs. Look at his #'s and explain how he's managed to do that despite all his run-ins with the media if he were such a risk? It simply isn't true.

Now, you may not like the guy (which is obvious), but TO is a virtual lock for 1100/10+ TDs. There's simply nothing risky about him.

quote:

Originally posted by gianmarco:
There's simply nothing risky about him.

He played nice in Philly in '04 and was a complete jerk in '05 and received a much-warranted suspension from the team. He sort-of played "nice" in '06, producing on the field. He also pushed Parcells to retirement because he wouldn't put up with TO's crap for another year. If he has that bad of a relationship with a coach, just how long will he be able to maintain any kind of a positive relationship on the field? That is the risk and I would pass on him for a comparable player.