In a keeper league, can keep three from this group of players, I already took out the ones that were obviously not keepers:

QB
J Cutler
M Bulger

RB
W McGahee
K Jones-hurt
F Gore

WR
Roy Williams

Which three would you keep...the keepers in our league work like this, a player can only be kept for 3 years in a row, no matter how many times he is traded. So with that in mind, this would be the final year that McGahee could be held onto. Everyone else would have 2 years left on their "contract". We surrender our last three picks in the draft Rd 13-15 to account for the keepers, so when you start in the 1st round, with everyone's keepers figured in, it's like your in the 4th round already. I have the #1 pick this year in this 12 team league. Here are my options as I see them...let me know which one you like the best and why:

Option 1:
Hold Bulger, Gore and Williams then draft McGahee first...with this philosophy, I would have a starting line up of these four in it, have McGahee(who should be solid at Balt) for another 3 years and then pick the best player to round out my starting lineup with the 24th pick.

Option 2:
Hold Gore, McGahee and Williams then draft either Marshall Lynch or Adrian Peterson or another running back that someone might have dropped that would be worthy of that pick (partially due to Gore breaking his hand yesterday and partially so I can have a stud rookie on my team for the next three years if it works out). Do you think the Bill's line is on the upswing? Is Marshall Lynch that good? Do you think Peterson would be worth it knowing he is splitting time with Taylor AND his injury history? Bulger is good, but will he make that much of a difference on my team this year if I can't get him at 24 on the way back down?

Thoughts?

I would definitely have to keep McGahee, Gore and Williams and take the best available player with the first pick - that may be AP or Lynch but could easily be a WR or RB dropped by another team. Bulger isn't being drafted in most leagues until the 5 or 6th round and I feel you would be settling for less talent overall on your team if you keep him just to pick McGahee up for the long term. With RB's, there's no lock that any of them will be around for 3 years, much less 3 more years on a guy with a few years experience already.

Agreed

who do you think would be better over a three year stretch, figuring in the o-lines, who will be the better pro and their current competition in each situation...AP or Lynch?

AP without a doubt.

as we were typing, Chester Taylor hurt his shoulder...weird!

I think you are worrying about long term a little more than you should. While you have to think long term to some degree, this is a 3 player keeper league, not a deep keeper league or dynasty. The idea of only getting a late round pick for any keeper you don't hang on to adds a little value to them but not as much stock as your posts lead me to believe you think there is. In a 3 player keeper league, I thing you have to think 85 to 90% about this year and only about 10 to 15% (tops) about years 2, 3 and 4.

The life span of your typical NFL player (particularly RB) is fairly short. Most RBs are only productive as a top level back for 3 to 5 years and only the most special players are worthy of a top 3 round draft pick for more than 5 or 6 years.

All that said, I would probably lean toward AP in this case without knowing what other veteran players might be available. In the short term Lynch could outscore him but for the mid and long term, I like AP better. Plus, given your situation, you don't really need a back for right now.

As for potential veterans, are there any 3 year keepers that you know will be out there or is this a league in the 2nd or 3rd year so that's not an issue yet? Also, what teams have more than 3 guys that are legitimate/semi legitimate top 3 round draft picks? From past experience, think that at least 1 top 5 to 8 WR is likely to be available and there is a small chance that someone will have to drop a top RB if they got a bargain pick on someone last year and were already loaded at the position.

Just got some inside info, what if these names were on the market, would you look to grab them over AP or Lynch?

Portis
Norwood
Gates
J. Lewis (browns line is improved)
L. White

Do you think AP can have a good year with those crappy QBs up there in Minn? Or would you roll the dice with Portis...who has a good offensive line, proven vet...but proven injury/bit overrated dude.

we are in year 2 of the first cycle of the 3 year "keeper contract", so all the studs that everyone have been winning with are in the last year of the contract so to speak. next year will be REALLY interesting.

Depends on starting requirements. Having Gore and McGahee gives you the luxury to draft AP if you only start 2 RB's. But to draft him and expect him to contribute this year might be asking too much, at least for the start of the season.

That said, I'd only consider taking Portis over him as far as those RB's. Lewis and White aren't even in the same ballpark, city, zipcode, state, country, whatever u want, so you can disregard them. I also wouldn't consider Norwood unless there's news that Dunn lost his left leg or something similar. Depending on scoring and rosters, Gates is a consideration for sure, but not at the expense of a stud RB.

Which brings me to Portis. If you are starting 3 RB or 2 RB's and a flex, then I would take Portis. Otherwise, it's a toss-up. Taking AP is a little more of a gamble for this year, I think. Portis is a fantastic RB but there are also a few risks with him.

1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 K and 1 Def

6 pts per rush/recieve TD
10 yards rec or rush=1pt
20 passing=1pt
3 pts for passing TD

Either AP, Portis, or Gates for me, with preference for first 2. I would personally take AP, but I'm also pretty high on him.

Out of curiosity, what WR's might be available as well? Also, how many teams are in the league?

I'd probably rank the guys you list as available: Gates, AP, Portis. I normally wouldn't go TE but Gates outscores other TE's by enough that he likely is the best value at this point given that you have 2 solid RBs to start with. Having a third top quality guy like Portis or a top rookie with high potential like AP is very tempting but I like filling a starting spot here instead of getting the 3rd string RB. However, if there is a top 10 WR out there, that's probably who I would be targeting.

WRs Kicked to the Curb
R. Moss-will he dominate in NE
C. Johnson-is he all that?
R. Wayne-does Harrison take away from him
Boldin-will the running style coach use him enough
Walker-will Cutler get him the ball?
A. Johnson-new QB, but still won't have time to get him the ball
TJ Housh-too early to take

RBs kicked to the curb that are interesting
Jones-Drew-interesting, but crowded backfield
B. Jacobs
D. McAllister
T. Bell
J. Jones
J. Lewis

12 teams, most are pretty savvy owners too, a couple of guys who have been playing a couple of years, but most at least 5 years.

I'm tempted by the Gates thing too, but wonder if he will be there for my second rounder, the 24th pick? A couple of the teams really need RBs.

There is no way that Gates should make it back to you with the 24th pick. However, given the list of WRs available, I easily change my mind and would take Wayne or Johnson (assuming that is Chad in CIN). Those 2 guys are 2nd round draft picks at the worst and shouldn't be available in a 3 team keeper unless their owners are absolutely stacked.

So, I would take either Wayne or Johnson. My mind says Johnson but being a Colts fan I might just opt for Wayne for the fun of it since they are pretty close.

I agree. I don't think you can go wrong with either Chad Johnson or Reggie Wayne and I would have no problem with taking either ahead of Portis or AP. I am certain those that prefer to load up on RBs would disagree, but given your roster that is the move I would make.

And I doubt Gates makes it out of the first round, certainly not to pick #24.

quote:

Originally posted by Iguana:
There is no way that Gates should make it back to you with the 24th pick. However, given the list of WRs available, I easily change my mind and would take Wayne or Johnson (assuming that is Chad in CIN). Those 2 guys are 2nd round draft picks at the worst and shouldn't be available in a 3 team keeper unless their owners are absolutely stacked.


So, I would take either Wayne or Johnson. My mind says Johnson but being a Colts fan I might just opt for Wayne for the fun of it since they are pretty close.

Agreed.

Here's where I'm at, I don't like Peterson at that pick (he's dingged up already and has two crappy QBs) and Lynch just reminds me of all the hype JJ Arington got a couple of years ago...I looked at both their college stats and it seems they were both hurt a lot. Reggie Wayne...he's good too...but Harrison won't die. Which brings me to Chad Johnson, he's great, but is he going to be consistent? That's my problem, always have good players, just not consistent guys. Johnson had a lot of his points in a three week span of 573 yards and 5 TDs. The other three weeks of the year he had one game over 100 yards and 2 TDs...got this off a site I have been reading. He averaged 60 yards per game. AND Chris Henry isn't there for the first 8 games taking attention away from him. Anyhow, I've been looking at Bulger for that pick...here's why...he has the weakest passing schedule of any QB, a new TE that the coach likes to throw to, a new red zone target in Drew Bennett, Holt and Bruce to throw to and a strong running game that teams have to respect. AND his coach has the highest % for making red zone pass attempts, even more than Martz in his days at St. L. Bulger had 8 games of 250+ passing yards, 8 games of 300+ passing yards, 7 games with 2 TDs or more and 4 games with 3 or more TDs...and he has more weapons and his schedule is going to be the weakest v the pass this year.
When the second round comes around I can grab the best WR there...which I'm thinking there will be names like Housh (comes in right below Johnson and gets more red zone targets), maybe Andre Johnson, Randy Moss, Boldin, Branch (who is the main dude in Seattle this year)...and then have one of the top QBs, two decent RBs, two good WRs, whoever I get at TE, decent kicker and a def. So four of eight or five or six of eight...depending who I get at WR and TE...could make for a nicely balanced team.

Am I crazy for thinking of passing on Johnson, why or why not?

Absolutely for several reasons.

1. There is no reason to take Bulger that early. You can get almost definitely get him in the 2nd round if not later. If you miss out, it's ok bc there are still some very good QB options.

2. The WR is an inconsistent position by nature. Last year, CJ was very inconsistent. But don't keep such a short-term memory. Before last year, he was actually a very consistent weekly performer. And in the long-term, only a few elite WR's have been as good and consistent.

Do you know who has led the AFC in receiving yds FOUR years in a row? Yes, Chad Johnson. The same AFC that has WR's like Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, Andre Johnson, and Hines Ward. FOUR years in a row he's outperformed all of them in terms of yards. Also 4 years in a row with 87+ catches. 3 out of 4 years with 9+ TDs. Chad Johnson is an easy top 3 WR choice. You're going to regret passing on him if given the chance.

quote:

Am I crazy for thinking of passing on Johnson, why or why not?

Absolutely crazy. And for much of what Gain said. Bulger should be there for you with your 2nd/3rd pick. He generally is going as a mid 6th round pick which means he should be there on the way back around.

I think a real arguement could be there to take Wayne instead of Johnson. Wayne's numbers keep getting better and better each year. Last year he finished as the #2 fantasy WR just barely behind Marvin. I don't see any reason both he and Marvin won't be in the top 5 to 8 WR again this year.

At the same time, as Gian points out, Chad has been at the top of the WR list for 4 straight years and there is no reason he shouldn't stay right near the top again. Also, you do realize that Chris Henry has little to do with taking heat off Johnson right? That's Housh's job and he should be just fine at it. Palmer, Rudi, etc are all still in place that should keep Cincy's offense at the top of the league.

Again, I think it is win-win to take either Wayne or Johnson but a huge loss to pass over them for Bulger. You might make a reasonable debate to pass on them for an RB and could stretch it to say you really want Gates but to pass on a top 5 WR to take a QB that will not be an absolute difference maker is a HUGE mistake, IMHO.