We all know the cliff like drop off after the first 4 running backs, and especially after the first 8, in most draft years. WR? Kicker? TE even? Not so much. But I was looking at the drop-off the past couple of years in Defenses and it was greater than I thought, especially after the first two.

In 2006 Baltimore generated the most fantasy points in the league I am in (Yahoo) with 240 pts. Next was Chicago with 205 pts. New England was third with 165 pts. That is a drop-off of 75 pts from 1 to 3. 40 pts from 2 to 3.

In 2005 Chicago generated the most fantasy points in the league with 200 pts. Next was Carolina with 195 pts. Indy was third with 173 pts. That is a drop-off of 27 pts from 1 to 3.

The litany I always hear is draft kickers and defense at the end if at all. Maybe so with kickers, little difference there really and such a crap shoot year to year. But if you have a chance at Chicago or Baltimore, where should you take the plunge? A little sooner than the common thought?

Look at where Baltimore and NE were in 2005 and Indy or Carolina were in 2006 and you'll see why you don't take defenses early. The turnover at the top is too hard to predict so you likely will waste an early pick.

In 2004, one league I'm in had Buff, Balt, and NE as the top 3. In 2005 they finished 16th, 10th, and 29th. Certainly not worthy of a high pick. IN 2005, Chic, Indy, and Carolina finished top 3. In 2006, they finished 2nd, 31st, and 18th. Only Chicago would have made you happy.

Agreed. Both Chicago and Balt are going WAY too early this year. After those 2 go, there is no reason to reach on one until the end this year because there are way too many decent defenses to be had this year. Philly, Pitt, and Denver are consistently solid defenses that are being taken in the 7-10 range at the end of drafts. I'd go that route.

The problem is that you just can't guarantee who those defenses are that will be that will excell.

Odds are pretty good you can get a top 12 defense very late or even off waivers.

quote:

Originally posted by ravage:
Odds are pretty good you can get a top 12 defense very late or even off waivers.

I grabbed Buffalo off waivers the season they went on a tear during the second half and finished #1 (or #2?). I won the league title and wouldn't have without them. Typically I take a solid defense in the later-middle rds (9 or 10).