Anquan Boldin is the player in question.

wbfoley is FOR Boldin being a valuable fantasy WR this season
Woodstock is AGAINST Boldin being a valuable fantasy WR this season

Do your best to convince us your side is the right one.

"He who has begun has half done. Dare to be wise; begin!"
--Horace

It’s impossible to deny that Anquan Boldin had a spectacular rookie season from start to finish. Very few WRs are able to come right out of college and produce those kinds of numbers in their first season. But it’s also important to consider the extenuating circumstances that set Boldin up for success. There are some hidden indicators that present some serious red flags when considering Boldin’s value in upcoming seasons and fantasy owners would be well served to watch out for the proverbial “sophomore slump” before paying too high a price for Boldin on draft day.

The first thing to consider is his memorable opening day when he racked up 217 yards against the Lions. Such numbers can’t be called a fluke, but it’s also hard to think he didn’t benefit from the element of surprise. He didn’t come out of nowhere just for fantasy owners; Boldin was also a surprise to defensive coordinators. He wasn’t even the first WR the Cards drafted, so it’s understandable that the Lions were completely unprepared for what he brought to the game. (Not to mention the fact that the Lions have one of the league’s worst secondaries and ranked 28th in pass defense anyway) Boldin also did very well against the Seahawks (who ranked 27th in pass defense), racking up 18 receptions in two games against that division rival. But keep in mind he was up against another rookie and an inexperienced secondary. He certainly got the best of the battle, but Marcus Trufant will likely level the playing field significantly in his second season.

It’s also important to consider the effect of a new coach, and while it would seem the addition of an offensive guru like Dennis Green could only benefit a WR, it might not be the case. Green has so much confidence in Anquan Boldin that he used the #3 overall pick of the draft on a WR in spite of the fact that the team has glaring weaknesses at virtually every other position. Whether or not Green is unjustified in his admiration of Larry Fitzgerald remains to be seen, but it’s hard to dispute that Fitzgerald is his golden boy and he’s going to give him every opportunity to succeed. With Boldin attracting double teams, look for Green to use Boldin as a decoy and call Fitzgerald’s number to give his prize rookie some work.

Green also neglected the QB position in spite of the fact that Josh McCown is a largely unheralded and unproven commodity. It’s refreshing to see a coach buck the trend, but one has to wonder if Green is just seeing what he wants to see. When considering a WR, one also has to consider the QB and how much faith can we have in Josh McCown? Sure, he has some highlight reel material in the improbable Week 16 victory over the Vikings, but his other two starts were losses and this is a young QB with a lot to learn. The guy is going to make some mistakes.

While fantasy owners concern themselves with stats, head coaches need to get wins or risk losing their jobs. Last year Arizona went 4-12 and in their four wins, the recipe for success was to use a well-rounded game plan. In their four wins, Boldin didn’t crack 100 yards and his average was 5 receptions for 51 yards. In the most staggering statistic of all, of his 1,377 yards, only 40 were obtained when the Cardinals had the lead. The remaining 1,337 yards (and all 8 tds) came with the game either tied or with his team trailing. In fact, the vast majority of these yards came with his team trailing, with 74 receptions for 967 yards and 6 tds with the Cards on the wrong side of the score. It’s also worth noting that 936 of those 1,337 yards came in the second half of games, further evidence that Boldin’s stats benefited greatly from the fact that he was playing in garbage time against prevent defenses. The Cardinals lost 12 games last year and the average margin of defeat was a whopping 20 points. It’s not a big surprise that Boldin was able to rack up some impressive numbers playing against teams holding a big lead.

Of course one could argue that the Cardinals aren’t going to be much improved from the lackluster versions that have taken the field for the majority of the past two decades, but there are some valid reasons to think they will show some signs of improvement. First of all, Dennis Green should be able to turn this team around. While it might take a few years, I don’t think it’s unrealistic to believe the Cards could at least approach .500 in his first year. Green’s offensive attack would seemingly benefit Boldin, but keep in mind Boldin will be seeing double-teams that will leave open field for Fitzgerald and the other receivers.

Welcome to the land of garbage time! Boldin will do just as good if not better than last year due to the following things:

1. Green will be able to get the Cardinals to put up some decent points this year(unlike in 2003 where they were #32 in the league for points scored). All their offensive positions seem to be solid except the QB. Green seems to believe in McCown, so I am gonna go with him having some talent to get the ball to the WRs. In the Cardinals last four games last year, McCown was 70/118 for 790yds and TD/INT of 5/2.

2. As good as they can be on offense, they are easily that bad on defense(#32 last year). I don't think they made very many improvements to the defensive side of the ball this year so far. They won't stop anyone this year causing the offense to throw more and more to catch up.

3. While Fitzgerald may hurt some what on the the numbers at first, I think he will help Boldin out immensely from being double teamed all year.

4. Boldin has worked with McCown for a year, unlike Fitz. They worked well together in the last four games of last year(31 for 355 2TDs) where McCown was playing for his position this year.

Bottom line: Terrible defense, a new WR to take the double teams away, and an offensive minded coach should prove more than enough for Boldin to equal or surpass last year's numbers.

Larry Fitzgerald cannot even legally drink yet. The guy had a great college career (although he struggled against major competition like Miami and in his bowl game against UVa) but he's not even close to being ready to handle what NFL caliber DBs are going to throw at him. Dennis Green should be respected for his offensive coaching talents, but he's wearing blinders on this one and was biased by the long relationship he has had with Fitzgerald.

In other words, Green's delusional about this kid but I don't see that changing, and he's going to try to feed Fitzgerald the ball and the whole offense is going to struggle. Maybe a couple of years down the road it will be different, but right now any experienced NFL nickel package DB should be able to handle Fitzgerald without any help. Boldin will still see the double teams and have less balls thrown his way.

McCown put up decent overall numbers, but I still say he has a lot to prove. Green might be wearing blinders on that one too.

I can't do much to argue the defense. They did add a couple of pretty good young players in the draft, but it's got a ways to go. I guess the only thing I can say is that it can't be much worse than it was last year.