Kevan Barlow is the player in question.

Iguana is FOR Barlow being a valuable fantasy RB this season
Bullies is AGAINST Barlow being a valuable fantasy RB this season

Do your best to convince us your side is the right one.

"He who has begun has half done. Dare to be wise; begin!"
--Horace

Let's start with some good, old-fashioned stats:

Barlow over the past 3 seasons:
2001: 125 carries, 512 yards, 4.1 ypc, 22 receptions, 247 yards, 5 TDs
2002: 145 carries, 675 yards, 4.7 ypc, 14 receptions, 136 yards, 5 TDs
2003: 201 carries,1024 yards, 5.1 ypc, 35 receptions, 307 yards, 7 TDs

Hearst over the past 3 seasons:
2001: 252 carries,1206 yards, 4.8 ypc, 41 receptions, 347 yards, 5 TDs
2002: 215 carries, 972 yards, 4.5 ypc, 48 receptions, 317 yards, 9 TDs
2003: 178 carries, 768 yards, 4.3 ypc, 25 receptions, 211 yards, 4 TDs

Everyone likes to talk about how Barlow wasn't able to beat Hearst out of a job but the numbers clearly show that he was slowly taking the job away. Granted, Hearst missed 4 games in 2003 but even with that, Barlow was still assuming a much bigger role and his stats prove that such a move was for the positive. Look at how his yards per carry have improved year after year as he has grown into being a legitimate NFL top tier RB. 5.1 ypc for a fill in RB isn't that impressive but for a guy to average 5+ ypc while gaining 1000+ yards is VERY impressive. In 2003 only 4 other 1000 yard backs averaged 5+ ypc (Lewis, A Green and LT each at 5.3 and Portis at 5.5).

I won't insult your intelligence and try to tell you that Barlow's ypc will continue to improve but with Hearst gone and SF dedicated financially to Barlow being "the man", his attempts should drastically increase. Also, with an inexperienced QB in the lineup, he should see plenty of dump off passes and screens. Barlow has shown the ability to be an effective receiver. To project some very conservative numbers, Barlow should easily get 300+ rushing attempts and 50 receptions. Even if he only gets a meager 4.0 ypc that's 1200+ yards and should easily amass 400+ receiving yards. Throw in 8 TDs, a decent yet modest total and you have a very solid back.

1600 total yards and 8 TDs comes to 13 points per game (standard performance scoring). Not an outstanding total but good enough last year to be about the #13 RB. In terms of total points that equates to the #10 RB in 2003, #12 in 2002, #7 in 2001 and #12 in 2000. So, what I am saying is that WORST CASE scenario (barring major injury), Barlow will be the #12 RB. I could easily argue that Barlow could end up being the top receiver for the 49ers due to dump offs and such. If that is the case, 60 to 70 receptions and 600+ yards are very reachable. If Barlow isn't one of the top 10 backs selected (and thus a late first rounder), then he will be a steal for anyone that gets him in the early to mid 2nd round of a 12+ team draft. The way I see it you have 7 guys clearly ahead of Barlow, after that, you could easily stick him at #8-10 depending on how you feel about a couple other guys in the tier he is in. Any lower and you are giving away the season to your competition!

I know you all want to keep the player debates between the two parties involved, but I just can't resist commenting on my favorite player, Barlow. Looking at his numbers, it wouldn't be farfetched to say that he could very well be our best offensive player this coming season.

Good job Iguana. To add to your comments, Barlow reported to minicamp in the best shape of his career. Not that he was out of shape in the past. In season's past, he worked out with Owens in the offseason, and last offseason, he worked out with a personal trainer. This offseason, he stayed in SF, and worked out with team. Anyway, Erickson was RAVING about him after minicamp.

A lot of fantasy owners will probably shy away from Barlow, citing our "bad" offensive line. I'm on record as saying our line isn't as bad as people are saying, and it will ultimately prove, once again, to be one of the best lines in the league. They'll need time to gel, but judging from a talent standpoint alone, the players are good enough to become a respectable unit.

A very plausible argument against Barlow's sucess is the inexperience of our QBs and WRs. Because of that, teams are unlikely to respect our passing game, and we'll see a lot of 8 in the box. That will hold true in the beginning, but once Brandon Lloyd establishes himself as our go to guy (he can do it in his second year, because he played in a similar offense in college), then everything will come together. Barlow might have a big game against the Falcons on opening day, because Mora is our former DC, and he's aware of the abilities of our receivers. So he might be reluctant to load up in the box. Nevertheless, I predict some uneven performances by Barlow early in the season, then an explosion by mid season.

Stats are nice, but don't nearly tell the whole story. There was some buzz at the end of last season that Barlow was finally turning the corner and becoming the featured back he was drafted to become. The only problem is that he was groomed in that role with veterans all around him. Jeff Garcia, Terrell Owens, Tai Streets, and an offensive line that consistently helped the Niners be one of the top rushing teams.

Lets look at the QB situation. Garcia was perennially one of the top QB's since coming into the league and finished on a tear last year, but he's gone. Tim Rattay, with very little game experience now has a torn groin which may take till the start of the season or longer to heal. That leaves Ken Dorsey running the show to start the season, a rookie. When Rattay is healthy enough, it may take several weeks for him to get in game shape and find some chemistry with his young WR's.

Speaking of WR's, Cedric Wilson is the leading returning WR with 35 rec., 396 yds, and 2 TD's. He's entering only his third year. Brandon Lloyd is in his 2nd year and managed 14 rec. last year. Rashaun Woods is a rookie and won't have the benefit of a Garcia or an Owens to lean on while learning the ropes. There is talk that these young WR's will be great in years to come, but not without a worthwhile QB throwing to them. Especially not this year.

The O-line breaks down like this in terms of experience:

LT (2)
LG (2)
C (5)
RG (2)
RT (9)

Three starters in their 2nd season blocking for an inexperienced QB and a first-time featured back. This could get ugly.

So, you can't compare what Barlow did with Pro-bowl caliber players around him and say that his numbers will improve. Everything above points to an agonizing season ahead for the Niners. Inexperienced QB's, inexperienced WR's and an inexperienced line and his numbers are supposed to continue to go up??? I don't doubt that Barlow has the talent under the right circumstances, but these are certainly not the right circumstances.

Also note that the bulk of Barlow's numbers for last year came in the last four games of the season, coinciding with Garcia's hot streak. Five TD's (out of 7 total), and two 150+ yard rushing games. I don't see how he pulls off these types of games without the supporting players who helped make them possible.

quote:

---

Originally posted by Bullies:
Also note that the bulk of Barlow's numbers for last year came in the last four games of the season, coinciding with Garcia's hot streak. Five TD's (out of 7 total), and two 150+ yard rushing games. I don't see how he pulls off these types of games without the supporting players who helped make them possible.

---

That 4 game hot steak by Garcia just happens to be the 4 games that Hearst was out injured. Was it Garcia getting hot that helped Barlow's totals or was it Barlow opening things up and making things easier on Garcia? Either way, the one thing that is clear is that when finally given the opportunity to be "the guy", Barlow delivered and was given the pay day to go with it.

Next, I don't expect Barlow's averages to go up, I blatantly conceed that his YPC will decrease mainly due to the losses of Garcia and Owens. However, his number of touches should greatly increase and the increased quantity will more than make up for the diminished quality of production. The uncertainty at QB doesn't hurt Barlow's overall value because while his rushing numbers likely will suffer early in the season, he will make up the difference with an increased number of outlet passes and screens. SF will likely stink it up as an NFL team but Barlow will get plenty of garbage time points off of dump off passes and a few longer yardage rushes when the games are out of reach and the defenses are playing the pass and SF drops the occasional draw on them.

quote:

---

That 4 game hot steak by Garcia just happens to be the 4 games that Hearst was out injured. Was it Garcia getting hot that helped Barlow's totals or was it Barlow opening things up and making things easier on Garcia? Either way, the one thing that is clear is that when finally given the opportunity to be "the guy", Barlow delivered and was given the pay day to go with it.

---

Okay, I'll concede that Barlow may have been a key part of that run. But the point is that Garcia and Owens are established top-tier players that won't be there for Barlow opening things up for him this year.

quote:

---

However, his number of touches should greatly increase

---

Greatly increase? Be careful there. His touches have to increase because he's the starter now. But don't forget now that the Niners will be getting blown out alot this year. This guy isn't going to be getting 20-25 touches a game. Probably more like 15-18. And to post even decent numbers he'll have to have a solid YPC to do so. I liken him to Corey Dillon's struggles in Cincy. The only difference is that Dillon would occasionally bust out for 200+ yards. So, by the end of the year, he was always in the top 5-7 rushers, but you'd be scratching your head, because the fantasy wins weren't there because he got all his stats in 3-4 games. The problem is, I don't see Barlow as having near Dillon's ability to pull off some big games 3-4 times a year while being on an equally pathetic offense.

So, he may scratch out 1,000 yards, but I don't see many TD's at all, maybe 6. There's just no evidence to suggest he'll have a good year being the only offensive weapon on that team, with a so-so defense.

quote:

---

Originally posted by Bullies:
...Greatly increase? Be careful there. His touches have to increase because he's the starter now. But don't forget now that the Niners will be getting blown out alot this year. This guy isn't going to be getting 20-25 touches a game. Probably more like 15-18...

---

You know, I never thought that the anti-49ers rhetoric, that's pervasive on this board, would cloud the judgment of members who claim to be all-knowing about every NFL team. Once again, I read projections about my team, where another poster has made statements without doing the homework.

You emphatically state that the 49ers will get blown out"alot". How do you know? Did you know that of all the opponents the Niners play this coming season, only FOUR of them went to the playoffs last season?
Granted, the team will lose several games, due to rawness at several skill positions, but to say that they'll get blown out is nothing more than an unsubstantiated claim based on absolutely no facts, in attempt to strengthen your argument. BTW, Barlow will get at least twenty carries a game as well as be used extensively in the passing game, because he is one of the most experienced offensive players on the team. (That fact alone renders your claim that he will only get 15 to 18 touches a game profoundly ludicrous). Furthermore, the head coach of the team is on record as saying the offense will run through Barlow. My goodness, even the GM, Terry Donahue, has said that the team's success next season will rest on the legs of Barlow and the arm of Rattay. Translation...Barlow will see the ball a lot.

quote:

---

...I liken him to Corey Dillon's struggles in Cincy. The only difference is that Dillon would occasionally bust out for 200+ yards... The problem is, I don't see Barlow as having near Dillon's ability to pull off some big games 3-4 times a year while being on an equally pathetic offense.

---

Other than utilizing the 49ers are going to suck mentality, how it is you come to the conclusion that Barlow isn't capable of pulling off 3-4 big games a year is beyond me. Here are some FACTS you can chew on:

1) Barlow carried the ball 201 times last season, and averaged 5.1 yards a pop.

2) He eclipsed the 1,000 yard mark, as the number two, of a one/two running back by committee approach, and having only started four games.

3) He rushed for OVER 150 yards in TWO games out of his four starts last season, yet you're trying to sell an argument that he isn't capable of "3-4 big games" in SIXTEEN STARTS?!! Maybe your friends (in what seems to be a tight knit group here) will buy into that claim, but I don't.

Before you try to undermine Barlow's two big games last season, by saying that they came against weak defenses, here is some more insight into Dillon's big games, his last two years as a starter:

1) The last time Dillon ran for more than 150 yards was in 2002. He ran for 164 yards against the Indianapolis Colts, a team not exactly known for a stout defense. Oh, BTW, that was the ONLY game Dillon eclipsed 150 yards in a game, in SIXTEEN starts.

2) Going further back to 2001, Dillon only had ONE big game (150+ yards) . He rushed for 184 yards against the Detroit Lions., yet another PATHETIC defense.

If Barlow can rush for 154 yards against a more respectable (but inconsistent) Eagles defense, than you better believe he could tear up the Lions defense, the same way Dillon did.

Barring injury, I guarantee you that Barlow will have you eating your words before the end of next season. Contrary to your belief, he's AT LEAST equal to Dillon in talent and ability. I could even make an arguement that Barlow will prove to be better than Dillon was in Cincinatti. I know one thing for sure, when it comes to being a receiver out of the backfield, Barlow is the superior of the two.. As a part time back, Barlow had 307 yards receiving last season. Cory Dillon has NEVER had that many yards receiving, as a SIX YEAR STARTER. Yet, you would have me believe that Barlow doesn't have Dillon's ability.

Bottom line is, Barlow is quite effective, with ball in his hands, and he'll be quite productive. Can't attribute my projections to homerism either, as I have supported them with raw data.

49ersgold - I think perhaps you have missed the point of some of these debates. Two users are set off head-to-head to debate the upside and downside of each player they are assigned. Regardless of our personal feelings about each player, this is the assignment. I had to debate on Fred Taylor not being an effective fantasy QB this season. Frankly, I think Taylor could quite possibly end up as a top 5 back in the NFL again this season.

It is Bullies' job to debate against Barlow...

quote:

---

49ersgold - I think perhaps you have missed the point of some of these debates. Two users are set off head-to-head to debate the upside and downside of each player they are assigned. Regardless of our personal feelings about each player, this is the assignment.

---

skip, thanks but she knows full well how these debates work, as she's commented...er, interrupted other debates as well.

Okay 49er, you wanna talk smack? Let's do it.

quote:

---

You emphatically state that the 49ers will get blown out"alot". How do you know?

---

Because they were a weak 7-9 last year with Pro-bowl caliber talent at key positions. They've lost EVERYTHING on offense! A Pro-bowl QB, a Pro-bowl WR, and an experienced #2 WR. Not to mention Hearst, whom Barlow couldn't manage to beat out for three straight years. And they'll be starting 3 O-linemen with ONE year of experience. Do you DARE tell me that this isn't factual info on my part??? Are you telling me that the inexperienced Rattay ISN'T going to miss the next 4 months of prep time going into his first full season as a starting QB? Is THAT not factual? And you honestly believe that they are going to do as well as last year or better in the win-loss column? They MIGHT win 3 games, 4 if they're lucky.

quote:

---

BTW, Barlow will get at least twenty carries a game

---

This one's amusing. So, to BACK UP MY CLAIM, here are the numbers. The last five seasons, the league leader in carries has averaged 23.7 per game. Yes, that's the TOP carrier in the league. You want names? How about Ricky Williams (twice), Stephen Davis, Eddie George, and Edgerrin James. An average of 23.7 carries. Not only is Barlow nowhere near being in the class of these guys, but they were all on winning teams! So you think Barlow is going to get 20+ carries a game and/or lead the league when the 49ers are playing from behind all year???

quote:

---

because he is one of the most experienced offensive players on the team.

---

Which is exactly why defenses are going to key on him!!! Cedric Wilson had 35 grabs last year and Lloyd had 14. Rattay is injured till the start of the season. Hmmm...if I'm a defense, who should I try to shut down? HAHAHAHAHA!!!!!

quote:

---

1) Barlow carried the ball 201 times last season, and averaged 5.1 yards a pop.

2) He eclipsed the 1,000 yard mark, as the number two, of a one/two running back by committee approach, and having only started four games.

3) He rushed for OVER 150 yards in TWO games out of his four starts last season, yet you're trying to sell an argument that he isn't capable of "3-4 big games" in SIXTEEN STARTS?!! Maybe your friends (in what seems to be a tight knit group here) will buy into that claim, but I don't.

Before you try to undermine Barlow's two big games last season, by saying that they came against weak defenses, here is some more insight into Dillon's big games, his last two years as a starter:

1) The last time Dillon ran for more than 150 yards was in 2002. He ran for 164 yards against the Indianapolis Colts, a team not exactly known for a stout defense. Oh, BTW, that was the ONLY game Dillon eclipsed 150 yards in a game, in SIXTEEN starts.

2) Going further back to 2001, Dillon only had ONE big game (150+ yards) . He rushed for 184 yards against the Detroit Lions., yet another PATHETIC defense.

If Barlow can rush for 154 yards against a more respectable (but inconsistent) Eagles defense, than you better believe he could tear up the Lions defense, the same way Dillon did.

---

You wasted your own time here. Last year's stats are irrelavent because the team is completely different and has no experience or chemistry together. Nobody cares what Barlow accomplished last year. He's dealing with a completely different set of circumstances. And are you honestly telling me that Dillon had a Garcia-type QB and an Owens-type WR during his years in Cincy? No, he had nothing. No O-line, no worthwhile coaching, nothing. But it's no secret that if Dillon had been on the Niners the last five years, he wouldn't have been SPLITTING TIME with anybody! He would have been tearing up the league.

quote:

---

Bottom line is, Barlow is quite effective, with ball in his hands, and he'll be quite productive. Can't attribute my projections to homerism either, as I have supported them with raw data.

---

Yeah, I smell something raw, but it isn't data.

Ignoring the 49ersGold homerism and concentratine only on Bullies rebuttal...

Bullies, I completely agree that SF will suck as a team and Barlow will not get 20-25 RUSHING touches a game. And, I think 15-18 rushing attempts sounds pretty good. Going with the center number, for arguements sake, means you agree that averaging 16.5 carries a game is reasonable. At a meager 4.0 YPC, that is 1056 yards. I actually think he will get about 18 carries a game including several draws later in the game that tend to surrender big gains when your team is down by a couple TDs. However, to go along with the rushing yards, I believe that Barlow will prove to be the top receiving threat for the 49ers this year due to the number of outlet passes and screens he will get. He has proven to be an effective pass catcher in the past, catching 35 balls for 307 yards in part-time duty last year. Between being the solo back this season and the pathetic state of affairs at the other skill positions, I foresee Barlow getting at least 60 catches and probably 70+ this season for another 500 to 600+ yards. These receiving yards will easily push Barlow's value up to the top 10 fantasy RBs this year.

Iguana, I think you're forgetting about the broken leg coming in week 7.

OMG! Even after being presented with sufficient evidence, you still won't concede that Barlow did win the starting job, late last season. Bottom line is, if he didn't, Hearst (who was willing to take a paycut, BUT didn't want to be a backup player) would still be on the team.

I NEVER said, (in this thread, or any other thread) that my team is a sure playoff team. My contention all along is that they are in position to overachieve by going 8 and 8. Two key players (Barlow and CB Ahmed Plummer) signed new contracts this offseason that contain option clauses. The will not see a significant amount of their bonus money, unless they meet or exceed expections. So they have plenty of incentive. Rattay has several incentive clauses in his contract too, so he'll bust his butt to get back in time (not that he wouldn't do so without his incentive laden contract). We haven't lost any significant starters on defense, and acutually improved along the defensive line and in the secondary.

Rattay did a decent job as a fill in last season, due to an unexpected injury to Garcia, despite not getting a significant amount of work in the offseason. Rattay is going into his FIFTH season, so he knows the offense well enough to be effective. (Erickson says that he is not going to make significant changes to the offense, even though we have a new offensive coordinator). His timing will be off in the beginning, but that too will pass. It's understandable for people to doubt him though; afterall, nobody expected some guy named Jake Delhomme to fare well either.

Your second to last reply doesn't disprove any of my points. Instead, I read statements designed to attempt to get me riled up. I'm not going to let anyone egg me on. Barlow has shown enough promise to make my points quite realistic and valid, whether any of you want to admit it or not.

I stand by my comments, not only based on what I've seen from Barlow, but based on what Mike Shannahan told our team, immediately after we drafted Barlow. He congratulated my team and said that Barlow was the best back in the draft. That was the draft of 2001, the same year Deuce McCallister, Michael Bennett, and Travis Henry were drafted.

There is no sense in continuing an argument that won't be settled definitively, until after the season is over. I wasn't talking smack either; I'll wait until AFTER Barlow proves you wrong to do that. You better hope he breaks his leg; otherwise, he's going to make your projections look awfully bad.

quote:

---

OMG! Even after being presented with sufficient evidence, you still won't concede that Barlow did win the starting job, late last season.

---

Sufficient evidence being what, Hearst getting hurt???

quote:

---

I stand by my comments, not only based on what I've seen from Barlow, but based on what Mike Shannahan told our team, immediately after we drafted Barlow. He congratulated my team and said that Barlow was the best back in the draft. That was the draft of 2001, the same year Deuce McCallister, Michael Bennett, and Travis Henry were drafted.

---

And all three of them have kicked Barlow's butt since then. Are you agreeing then that Shannahan was wrong??? You just gave me that one.

quote:

---

You better hope he breaks his leg; otherwise, he's going to make your projections look awfully bad.

---

Don't worry, this thread will still be sitting right here in December.