Donovan McNabb is the player in question.

ravage is FOR McNabb being a valuable fantasy QB this season
Woodstock is AGAINST McNabb being a valuable fantasy QB this season

Do your best to convince us your side is the right one.

"He who has begun has half done. Dare to be wise; begin!"
--Horace

This message has been edited. Last edited by: TenTimes,

First let's just do some basics. McNabb has had around 3,200 yards each year with a WR corp who has not had a true #1 WR. Of course add in the more than 400 yards rushing he gets on average and you have about 3,600 yards. Not great but not bad. Now add in Terrell Owens who should add about 400 more yards to what the best receiver did for Philly last year and now we're at about 4,000 total yards. Now that's a great QB. Terrell should also add about 4-8 more TDs a year. That's just bonus.

After his injury in 2002 McNabb had a tough time getting started last year. With the addition of T.O. McNabb should have all the confidence in the world getting out of the gate. I think we're looking at a career year for McNabb.

First, let me say to RUN HARD, I'm not trying to step on your toes or anything but we haven't seen you around and ravage was wondering in another thread if someone would take up the cause so I volunteered. If you want to take over that's fine.

As for McNabb...

He's one of the most overrated fantasy players in the game and I don't see the addition of Terrell Owens changing that.

First, lets look at what he's done. Last year he played in all 16 games and finished as the 13th ranked QB in my fantasy league that uses fairly standard scoring. A QB that ends up sandwiched between Tom Brady and Quincy Carter in fantasy rankings isn't even starter caliber.

The Eagles, much like the Patriots, win with their system and while it works for their organizations, it's something fantasy owners want to avoid. These offenses spread the ball around so much that no one player ends up having a ton of value, not even the QB.

McNabb threw 16 tds last year, simple math telling me that he gets one per game. That doesn't do much for fantasy stats. With only three multiple-td games and six games in which he didn't throw a single td, there's more famine than feast.

We all know how valuable a mobile QB can be to fantasy owners because of the high value of rushing yards, but keep in mind it's a double-edged sword. Sure, McNabb had 355 rushing yards last year and that's a nice bonus, but it is by no means enough to boost his value into the elite. The other thing to remember about QB rushing yards is that they're very unpredictable and tend to come in bunches. McNabb rushed for 50+ yards three times last year and in another game he had 47 yards. That's a total of 209, or 209/355 = 59% of his season rushing total in four games. In no other game did he rush for over 26 yards and in six games he had less than 10 yards, which means 0 fantasy points in most leagues. So while it's nice to have the points the days he runs, 3/4 of the time the fact that he's a mobile QB doesn't do a fantasy owner one bit of good. Of course rushing tds score big points in most leagues too. McNabb had three last year. That puts him on par with Jay Fiedler, and it's one less than Marc Bulger had last season. Do those names ever come up when talking about the value of QB rushing tds in fantasy leagues? McNabb has a total of 11 rushing tds the last three years. In other words, as with the rushing yards, every now and then you get a nice bonus, but it's foolish to put him in your lineup and expect it on any given Sunday.

As a final point against mobile QBs, they are injury prone. With the exception of 2002, McNabb has done a good job of protecting himself, but the law of averages says he'll get hurt and miss significant time again. Either that or he'll transform into more of a pocket passer (his rushing totals are already dropping) and fantasy owners will lose the rushing yard points he provides.

For the sake of argument lets say the addition of Owens does boost McNabb's stats by the numbers ravage suggests. Add in another 400 passing yards and 6 tds (I'll meet you halfway on the 4-8 estimate). That would bring last year's totals to 3,600 passing yards and 22 tds. The 3,600 yards is solid, but by no means spectacular when compared to the elite QBs. The 22 tds is still less than every one of the 12 guys ahead of him in last year's fantasy rankings with the exception of Jeff Garcia, who missed a couple of games with injury. In fact, with those totals, McNabb basically matches Jon Kitna's yardage numbers from last year with a few less tds. Sure, Kitna had a good year, but he barely cracks the top 10 of fantasy QBs and no one was exactly falling all over themselves to obtain his services.

I also don't think it's a given that Owens has a drastic effect on stats. He has a lot of character issues to address and it remains to be seen how he adjusts to a new team and finding a chemistry with his new QB. Remember, this is an offense that spreads the ball around and wins with its system. Owens is a nice, shiny, new part, but he's still just a part.

Ahhh, I see I must dispell the myths before I can defend McNabb.

MYTH #1-Every year, it seems, McNabb gets drafted as one of the top 5 QBs.

Fact-From 2001 on McNabb has never finished in the top 5 QBs. If you have drafted him as a top 5 QB that was your choice but don't exclude him now because of your past mistakes.

MYTH #2-Rushing QBs are better than pocket QBs for fantasy football.

Fact-To take McNair as an example. In '97 and '98 McNair averaged about 600 rushing yards a year, his first 2 years as a starter. He was all the rage in fantasyland just like McNabb. From '00 to '02 McNair averaged about 400 rushing yards a year. And he started seeking up on draft boards. Last year he had a career low 138 rushing yards and was Co-MVP. Part of his rise was due to staying in the pocket and eluding rushers instead of running himself. Part of it is just due to having better WRs.

What does this have to do with McNabb? Last year was McNabb's lowest total rushing yards since his rookie year when he only played in 12 games. He's learning to stay in the pocket. Now he has a true #1 WR in Terrell Owens. That means he has a target who will be open more often than not. He's never had a guy who could get open like Owens.

Also let's talk a moment about dropped passes. I tried to find an article on dropped passes by WRs like is printed in the Wisconsin papers on the Packers. That stat must be too much for the Philly papers. I did go through articles on some of the games, here are some of the headlines. Eagles drop 6 passes. WRs drop 5 passes. TD pass dropped. On and on they go. It seems obvious to me that dropped passes were a problem for McNabb last year. Say the Eagles averaged 4 drops a game last year and I think that's on the low side. Now with Owens on board say he only prevents one of those a game, again on the low side, that's an additional 187 yards based on McNabb average/reception. That doesn't sound like much but I checked 2 of my leagues scoring in one that moves him up one slot in the other it moved him from 11th to 5th. That's just dropped passes not the other improvements that Owens brings to that offense.

Don't even bring the disgruntled employee stuff(Owens) to the table. Does Owens whine? Oh Yeah. Does he say he should get the ball more? Of course, as he well should, he's an elite WR in the NFL. Owens is on the team he wants to be on. This is a playoff team. Along with the maturity McNabb has found he will move McNabb up out of that 11-13 range into the top 5 this year.

Bank on it.

That would be fine if Terrell Owens never dropped any passes, but he's notorious for it. Sometimes his head just isn't in the game and it shows. That goes back to that famous 49ers-Packers playoff game where he must have dropped a half dozen catchable passes himself before catching the famous td from Young as time expired. Stats, Inc. has stats on dropped passes and according to that source Laveranues Coles and Darrell Jackson are the only two WRs in the NFL with more drops than Owens last year.

I also think it's fair to bring the disgruntled employee stuff to the table. There are too many things that make this signing seem like a house of cards. Sure, Owens is where he wants to be, but how many players take the year off after signing a big contract? The entire fanbase expects the team to win the Super Bowl now that he's there so he's under a lot of pressure and it's hard to say how he'll respond. Aside from all that, any WR has to find a chemistry with a new QB. But alas, I risk turning the McNabb debate into the Owens debate so I'll stop there.

I was going to get more stats to prove my point further but stats I don't believe will change anyone's mind about McNabb, the system that Reid runs or Owens.

Ok here it is, bottom line.

McNabb-Most of us have been saying for several years that McNabb just needs that one big target to get over the hump and win the big one. McNabb will focus in on Owens until other receivers so wide open that they can't help but get great yardage. McNabb knows that Owens is his go to guy and his best chance to win it all. Just watch the balls fly towards Owens. Then watch as the other receivers pick up a lot of slack and end up with career years too. All that equals huge stats for McNabb.

Reid-This is it for Reid if he can't win the big one with Owens on the roster he knows his job will be in jeopardy. If he misuses Owens and doesn't win the big one he will be gone almost for sure. He will call plays and design plays strictly to get Owens the ball, which only helps McNabb. If he doesn't, he knows he'll be sitting in an unemployment line a lot quicker.

Owens-He wants to prove that the problem in SF wasn't him. He's going to visit McNabb at his home so they can get comfortable with each other. He's already said that McNabb's ball gets to him much quicker than he used to, but that is an adjustment he can and will make.

McNabb is all set for a career passing year. Everything he needs is there. Look out everyone McNabb will have a shot at the #1 QB in fantasyland this year and will be in the top 5.

Ten Times / ravage -- sorry about not debating. I just don't have the time. I didn't want to make generic statements without factsd to back them up. Please go ahead and hammer away for me. I would like to see how many 3 + TD games McNabb has in his career versus other QB's that played as long or shorter.

McNabb is the 15 - 20th QB...not worth taking until the 6th rd.

Ten Times---please remove me from from future debates...wish I had time...and I don't want to bring a good debate to a halt cause I can't participate.

Later

I'll sort of address RUN HARD's request. I looked at nfl.com game logs that go back three years for McNabb and several of his peers to check out 3+ TD games. I tried to pick QBs that had started fairly consistently for the past three seasons. I counted both passing and rushing tds. It doesn't cover McNabb's whole career, but I wasn't that ambitious.

Example, read: In 11 of 42 games, McNabb had 3+ tds, or in 26% of his starts in the past three years, he's had 3+ tds.

*Bulger/Warner 13 of 43 = 30%
Culpepper 12 of 41 = 29%
Gannon 11 of 39 = 28%
Garcia 12 of 45 = 27%
McNabb 11 of 42 = 26%
Manning 12 of 48 = 25%
Favre 12 of 48 = 25%
Brooks 12 of 48 = 25%
Brady 11 of 47 = 23%
Fiedler 8 of 39 = 21%
Green 9 of 48 = 19%
Johnson 8 of 45 = 18%
**Hasselbeck 7 of 38 = 18%
McNair 8 of 46 = 17%
Collins 7 of 45 = 16%
***Plummer 5 of 43 = 12%

* I know it's not really fair to combine two guys, but I was curious. Individually, Bulger is 5 of 21 = 24% and Warner is 8 of 22 = 36%.

** In 2001, Hasselbeck was 0 of 11, since that time he's been 7 of 27 = 26% so I'm not sure if it's fair to include him since he was still learning the ropes in 2001 - he now seems to be on par with the guys who rank pretty solid in the list.

***Plummer - (4 of 11 last year as a Bronco = 36%, 1 of 32 the previous two years as a Cardinal = 3%)

As for McNabb, clearly he stacks up pretty well against his peers so I'm probably hurting my own argument, but such is my commitment to stocking the message board with stats.



On the other hand, note that McNabb's totals are that high thanks largely to the 2002 season in which he only appeared in 10 games, but had 3+ tds in 5 of them. Last season he had 3+ tds in only 2 of 16 contests.