Hines Ward is the player in question.

Iguana is FOR Ward being a valuable fantasy WR this season
Woodstock is AGAINST Ward being a valuable fantasy WR this season

Do your best to convince us your side is the right one.

"He who has begun has half done. Dare to be wise; begin!"
--Horace

You won’t catch me badmouthing Hines Ward’s grit, work ethnic, or overall toughness, but fantasy football is about stats and the cold reality is that it’s hard to win games with intangibles in this hobby.

Ward already started to decline last season in which his numbers saw a 12% drop from a 2002 peak. In 2002 he racked up 112 receptions for 1,329 yards with 12 tds. Last year those numbers declined to 95 receptions for 1,163 yards with 10 tds. Nice by any standards, but it’s safe to expect the downward trend to continue due to shaky play at the QB position, the departure of Mike Mularkey, and a running game that won’t open things up for the pass.

First consider the QB position. Last year Tommy Maddox put the ball in the air a staggering 519 times, as compared to 377 in 2002. While he did throw for more yards, the increase was not by the margin one might expect and his QB rating dropped to 75.3 last year. In 2002, he threw 377 times for 2,836 yards; in 2003 it was 519 times for 3,414 yards. That’s a 38% increase in attempts, with only a 20% increase in yardage and his touchdowns actually declined from 20 to 18.

With the drafting of Roethlisberger and the recent salary dispute with Maddox, it’s no secret that the organization is just hoping Maddox will hold down the fort while the rookie gets prepared to face NFL defenses. Best case scenario for Maddox is that he plays this entire season and then gets released. Maddox is an aging journeyman veteran already on thin ice, and will likely struggle under the pressure of having the rookie waiting in the wings, not to mention the fact that he feels jilted by the organization for their failure to pay him fair market value. Considering these factors and depending on how Roethlisberger develops, it’s easy to see the team giving the rookie the chance to start.

Needless to say, any WR numbers would suffer with a rookie QB behind center. It’s not as though Ward has the dominating physical attributes of a player like Terrell Owens or Randy Moss. Ward gets it done with hard work and crisp routes, but unfortunately those things won’t mean much with an inexperienced rookie behind center. While guys like Owens or Moss might be able to adjust and out jump defenders to get poorly thrown balls, the same can’t be said of Ward.

Even if Maddox retains the job, it’s easy to envision Ward’s numbers dropping below the 1,000-yard mark. First of all, the Steelers aren’t going to put the ball in the air 519 times again. The team recognizes the fact that they need to establish the run more to have offensive success. Unfortunately, by passing on several quality rookie backs in the draft they’re left with ancient Jerome Bettis and the enigmatic Duce Staley. While Staley is a nice addition, he’s not a guy who is going to control the game or dictate the offense and the running game is still well below par. As a result, Maddox and/or Roethlisberger will be facing a lot of 2nd-and-longs and 3rd-and-longs and defenses will be able to throw him off his game. Note also that Plaxico Burress is butting heads with the organization and it looks as though Burress is going to continue to make things difficult and struggle on the field. That too will mean defenders have more time to key on Ward.

Another factor that negatively affects Hines Ward’s value is the departure of long time offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey. Ward really cut his teeth under Mularkey and it was Mularkey’s creativity in calling reverses and otherwise finding ways for Ward to be involved that really helped Ward’s career take off. The new offensive coordinator, Ken Whisenhunt is very much an unknown quantity, with only tight end coaching and special teams coaching jobs on his resume. It’s hard to say what Whisenhunt brings to the table, but inexperience isn’t a good thing and it’s safe to say that he can’t get Ward any more involved than he was when Mularkey was calling the shots, so the only way to go is down.

Although I love Ward’s tenacity and I’d be quick to pursue him if I were running a NFL team, there are plenty of reasons to think his stats will continue to decline and that he will be overvalued in fantasy leagues.