Corey Dillon is the player in question.

TenTimes is FOR C. Dillon being a valuable fantasy RB this season
ravage is AGAINST C. Dillon being a valuable fantasy RB this season

Do your best to convince us your side is the right one.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: TenTimes,

Corey Dillon has been a very good RB on a very bad team. Now his team is much better but I don't think he'll thrive in this offense. Other than last year Corey has been good for 1,500 total yards and around 7 TDs. Not bad. Stats for a good mid-late #1 RB.

We won't be seeing that out of Corey in NE.

NE is a pass first offense and only use the run to keep the defense honest. As defending Super Bowl champs they won't change that strategy. A short controlled passing game is their forte and it's tough to defend all those targets and they know it.

Corey, if he stays healthy, should outdo Smith's stats but a total of 1,000 yards and 5-6 TDs should be about the high.

Here's why. NE is still going to use Kevin Faulk in passing situations and he will see plenty of time at RB as a change of pace. Faulk will get about a total of a 1,000 yards. Corey will still get his share but don't expect a stud #1 RB when you draft Dillon.

I'll take over for t_rob this week, my argument will come either later today or tomorrow morning.

thanks Ten I fe;t a l;ittle lonely.

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Originally posted by ravage:
NE is a pass first offense and only use the run to keep the defense honest. As defending Super Bowl champs they won't change that strategy. A short controlled passing game is their forte and it's tough to defend all those targets and they know it.

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I actually disagree with this. Sure New England has passed a lot recently, but I contend that that is because they really didn't have a rushing attack that was a threat to opposing offenses, and their best option was to dink and dunk their way down the field. Last year the Patriots passed 538 times compared to 473 rushes (A Smith and K Faulk had 182 and 178 respectively). Back in 2001 when Antowain was a legit rushing threat who ran for 1157 yards and 12 TDs (averaging 4.0 ypc), the Patriots rush to pass ratio was nearly 50% (473 rushes to 482 passes). Furthermore, Ant Smith was given 287 carries, the next closest RB had 51.

It'd be nice if New England could continue to rely on the same passing game that won them the Superbowl last season, but the fact of the matter is they can't and they know it. Troy Brown is a year older and is a shadow of his former self. Besides that, you simply can't "stay the same" in the NFL and expect to win because teams all around you are improving constantly (unless their star RB decides to up and retire, then they are drastically taking a step backwards). This offseason they had an oppurtunity to grab an elite NFL RB and they jumped all over it without hesitation. They want to open up the offenses, they want to use a lethal rushing attack to set up the play action fake and go down field. We will definetly see New England call nearly 50% rushing plays like this did back in 2001, and, just as in '01, most of the carries will go to the primary rushing threat, Corey Dillon. Given his outstanding durability and the fact that he took the last half of last season off, giving him half a year more than everybody else to recover from season injuries, I'm going to project the Patriots will rush 470 times and Dillon will reach the 300 carry mark.

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Corey, if he stays healthy, should outdo Smith's stats but a total of 1,000 yards and 5-6 TDs should be about the high.

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I agree that Dillon will outdo Smith's stats. I disagree on just how much he will outdo them by. There was a time when Dillon was considered a top 5 back talent-wise, he just never put up very good numbers because he was on a bad team. Now's his time to shine and show just what he's made of. Like I mentioned earlier, Ant Smith rushed for 1157 yards and 12 TDs on 4.0 ypc back in '01. You won't find many people who think Ant Smith is a more capable back than Dillon, and it wouldn't surprise many if Dillon were to surpass these numbers, which are already worthy of a late 1st round selection. Smith averaged 4.0 ypc that year, Dillon has averaged 4.3 ypc for his career, and the conditions in Cincy weren't nearly as favorable as the conditions in New England were for Smith.

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Here's why. NE is still going to use Kevin Faulk in passing situations and he will see plenty of time at RB as a change of pace. Faulk will get about a total of a 1,000 yards. Corey will still get his share but don't expect a stud #1 RB when you draft Dillon.

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Again, I'm going to go back to the 2001 season, the last season the Patriots had a rushing threat comparable to the one Dillon brings. Though he averaged 4.1 ypc, Kevin Faulk only got 41 carries and 30 catches this season. Marc Edwards had 51 rushes and 25 catches. Even if Faulk takes all those carries and gets about 100 rushes on the year, that's perfectly fine, it's only 100 rushes out of the 470 rushes I expect NE to have, leaving 370. Brady might take about 30 of those rushes, and 40 can go to 3rd/4th string RBs and that'd still leave 300 for Dillon.

Now I can't contend that Dillon is a great receiver, or even the receiver that Kevin Faulk is, but I do think he'll still be a factor in the passing game. Back in 2001 he had 34 catches on the season, and then in 2002 he had 43. His pass catching skills were improving and Cincy was starting to turn him into a receiving threat. New England will pick up on this and incorporate Dillon in to their passing game as well, giving him about 30 receptions for 180 yards.

And one final tidbit for you to chew on. Last year New England was 12th in the league in rushing fumbles with 21. Corey Dillon has never fumbled more than 3 times in any season.

Who's hands do YOU think they want the ball in?

Those are all convincing arguements if you take them all without thinking about it a bit.

1)Almost every arguement you have made for Corey includes a reference to what the Pats/Smith did in 2001. In all due respect I think we all know that the Pat offense will be much closer to that of the 2003 season.

2a)Personel: Troy Brown is certainly a year older. He missed games last year and I believe it will happen again but NE now has better receivers than when they won in 2001. In 2001 only 2 receivers had over 300 yards. In 2003 it was 5. Now in addition to Brown they have Givens, Branch, Faulk, Bethel, Graham. They could see as many as 6 this year.
2b)Faulk. Faulk will never be a full-time back but he has developed into a prolific pass receiver. Much better than Dillon. You don't leave your best backfield receiver on the bench when in passing situations. A good coach uses what he has to his advantage, Faulk and the dink and dunk passing offense is what NE does best Corey or not.

3)OK now even taking Ten's numbers for Dillon we come up a bit short. By Ten's numbers we come up with 1,290 yards rushing, 180 yards receiving. 12 RBs had more rushing yards than that last year. Of those below that total a few still move ahead of Dillon for other reasons. Edge moves over Dillon just based on TDs. Tiki moves over him based on receiving yards. Plus I feel Dom Davis and Rudi Johnson move over him due tofull seasons. That puts Dillon around 17th on my list.

Dillon is no doubt an improvement over Antowain but don't a miracle change in the offense or a big jump in Corey's averages. Take my advice my advice and take Dillon as a mid-late #2 RB. If you take him as your #1 you will be extremely disappointed.

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Originally posted by ravage:
Those are all convincing arguements if you take them all without thinking about it a bit.

1)Almost every arguement you have made for Corey includes a reference to what the Pats/Smith did in 2001.

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Sure it does, and it makes sense to go back to the 2001 season seeing as how that's the last time they had a rushing attack equivalent to what they are going to have this season. Just like people are looking at what Gibbs has done in the past to project how Clinton Portis' season in 2004 might play out. Obviously it's no clear cut way to predict the future, but going back in time to a similar situation allows us to predict what might happen the next time around. IMO New England's 2004 offense will more closely resemble their 2001 than their 2003 offense.

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2a)Personel: Troy Brown is certainly a year older. He missed games last year and I believe it will happen again but NE now has better receivers than when they won in 2001. In 2001 only 2 receivers had over 300 yards. In 2003 it was 5. Now in addition to Brown they have Givens, Branch, Faulk, Bethel, Graham. They could see as many as 6 this year.

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Yes the Patriots have a loaded receiving game that will be better than it was last year, but that doesn't mean Dillon will rush less than 300 times as I've projected. All it means is that the ball is going to be spread around that much more. Deion Branch is on average the 39th WR taken in recent antsports mock drafts. Givens and Brown are both in the upper 40s. The Patriots have a lot of talented receivers, but their leading receiver only had 57/803.

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2b)Faulk. Faulk will never be a full-time back but he has developed into a prolific pass receiver. Much better than Dillon. You don't leave your best backfield receiver on the bench when in passing situations. A good coach uses what he has to his advantage, Faulk and the dink and dunk passing offense _is_ what NE does best Corey or not.

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You could have fooled me. K Faulk had 48 receptions and 0 TDs last season. Over the last 4 seasons Faulk has averaged about 40 catches a year. Any guesses which of those 4 seasons was his worst as a receiver? Yep, you guessed it. 2001, the year NE had a viable rushing attack. He was 10 receptions below his average over that span, his receiving yards were down about 200, and his yards per reception were down about 3.0 points. Don't be surprised when the same thing happens again this year. Faulk was a nice change of pace back when the Patriots didn't have a workhorse who could carry the rock all game long and pick up those crucial yards, but now that Dillon is in town we're going to see Faulk return to that 30/180 range.

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3)OK now even taking Ten's numbers for Dillon we come up a bit short. By Ten's numbers we come up with 1,290 yards rushing, 180 yards receiving. 12 RBs had more rushing yards than that last year. Of those below that total a few still move ahead of Dillon for other reasons. Edge moves over Dillon just based on TDs. Tiki moves over him based on receiving yards. Plus I feel Dom Davis and Rudi Johnson move over him due tofull seasons. That puts Dillon around 17th on my list.

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I usually like to make modest predictions and leave open the possibility for production that exceeds my expectations rather than vice versa. Let me give you a realistic expectation of just how great his production could be.

For Dillon's first 4 seasons he averaged 4.6 yards a carry and 8.5 yards per reception. Plus again, Dillon's surroundings in NE are MUCH more intriguing than they were in his early years in Cincy. I'm going to go ahead and predict Dillon will average 4.7 yards per rush and 8.5 yards per reception and feel pretty confident in those numbers. With that 300 rushes and 30 receptions I've predicted that takes Dillon to

300/1410 and 30/255

About 1660 total yards as a high side projection. Throw in the double digit TDs and Dillon is ranked about 12th on my list of RBs. Definetly worth a late 1st round/early 2nd round RB. Add in the fact that he doesn't come with the uncertainty that RBs like Kevan Barlow, Dom Davis, Travis Henry, and to a lesser extent Fred Taylor and I think he's a good, safe choice as your #1 RB. How does the old cliche go? "You can't win your league in the 1st round, but you can lose it". For those not willing to risk their 1st round pick on one of the aforementioned, Dillon just makes sense.

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Dillon is no doubt an improvement over Antowain but don't a miracle change in the offense or a big jump in Corey's averages.

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Why not? Fantasy championships are won by expecting the unexpected. The facts are all there. Dillon was a strong runner on a poor team. When moving to a better team, why wouldn't his numbers improve?

Keep in mind. The fact that the Patriots will give 4 WRs 50 passes each rather than giving 2 WRs 90 passes each is not an answer. The fact that the Patriots, just like every other team in the NFL, have a change of pace back is not an answer.

1)The only change on the NE offense is Dillon. A player who is no longer in his prime. A player who needs to get off the field to rest those achy bones. Corey's stats have been on the decline since 2000. He can carry more of the load than some backs but not as much as the top backs. Faulk has been primed to be such a back. This offense will not change much. At least not enough for Corey to be a #1 back on any fantasy team. 2001 means about as much to NE as 2000 does to Corey, nothing.

2)What does it matter where WRs are ranked in relation to where a RB should be ranked? So the passing game will be better but somehow Corey gets more carries too? Seems like a weak point to me.

3)To me 40 receptions isn't too bad for a backup RB. Enough to take plenty from the starter. BTW those 40 receptions turn into about 370 yards a year. Doesn't leave much pass catching opportunity for a less than stellar receiving RB.

4)12 TDs for Dillon is not a modest prediction, it's outrageous. Corey has had more than 10 total TDs once. That was in 2001 but seems the stats from 2001 are the main focus of all your arguements so I guess he'll revert to those stats just like NE will revert to the offense of 2001.

5)Nice numbers but has never put up those numbers before and he won't this year.

6)The point I like best is that now that Corey is on a better team why won't his numbers increase.
a)Being on a better team often involces sacrificing your numbers for the betterment of the team. There are more options less stats.
b)age-wear and tear
c)Now the injury bug may have started on Corey. I say may because one year does not a trend make. At the same time this is a reason why the coaches will not make Corey a workhorse. They need him all year they can't afford to let him be injured and on the bench.

Dillon will not end up a #1 back by year's end. Don't ruin your season by taking him as a #1.

Dillon is my top, I repeat top RB sleeper. He has lost no skills, no speed nothing, he's estatic to finally be on a winner, and is motivated to show last year was a abberation. Pats won't have to resort to dink passing game anymore. They now have a clock eating stud. Do you guys realize how much better this guy is than A. Smith. I will giggle uncontrollaby at my draft when I steal him. 340 carries, 1400 plus rushing, 50 receptions, 10 to 15 TD's.

i'm with the advisor. dillon is a huge upgrade over smith!

belichick has been sucessful as of late because of one thing...he adapts his gameplan and scheme to the talent and personnel he has on the roster. the 2003 NE offense wasn't developed to be the next west coast or ram-style innovative offense...it was developed to maximize the talents and minimize the weaknesses of the players on that specific roster!

the fact that we can distinguish between the 2001 and 2003 offenses, BOTH superbowl winning offenses if i recall, is evidence of belichick's flexibility. bilicheck is famous for changing schemes between games, think he has loyalty to last year's system? he didn't for the 2001 offense did he?

belichick is a defensive guy. that means he likes a strong D and an O that doesn't make mistakes. the dink and dunk, when you don't have a dominant running game, helps control the tempo of a game and limits turnovers. but belichick is a results guy, not a process guy. he has a guy on the roster that can be a feature back, something NE hasn't had since curtis martin left, robert edwards excepted.

i don't think dillon is a top 8 prospect, but i think he can easily end up somewhere about 10 to 15. if it weren't for the injury last year, we'd all be asking if this was the year dillon was gonna have the supporting cast in Cincy to break out of his 8-12 ranking. Dillon is 29 and sat most of last season. that isn't young, but it isn't over-the-hill. at least give the guy till 30 before you bury him.

dillon will do everything that smith did only better. he's a better runner and, while not great, isn't the liability on third down that smith was. he's gonna see more touches than smith did last year and will do more with them. unless his head gets in the way!