Stephen Davis is the player in question.

The Divine One is FOR S. Davis being a valuable fantasy RB this season
t_rob is AGAINST S. Davis being a valuable fantasy RB this season

Do your best to convince us your side is the right one.

"He who has begun has half done. Dare to be wise; begin!"
--Horace

Stephen Davis is a 30 year old wrecking ball running on his last legs. His age and decline combined with the good health and youth of emerging star DeShaun Foster should/will make Davis an extremely risky fantasy RB.

He is an excellent number three and could be a decent number two (if taken late). But he is nothing more.

Since 1999 he trails only Eddie George, Curtis Martin and Ricky Williams in carries (w/ 1503). Age and workload are clearly wearing him out. He is a big-time injury risk. 2001 was the only season Davis has ever started 16 games. The past two seasons he has combined to miss 6 starts. His punishing style of play and age are increasingly making him an afterthought in elite RB conversations.

Some factors and tidbits...

O-Line
This is a unit that is replacing three starters and moving another to a different position. Gone are Jeno James (via Miami), Todd Steusie (via Tampa) and Kevin Donnally (via Retirement). In comes Travis Claridge and Adam Meadows as starting replacements. Then OT Jordan Gross is set to make the move from the rightside over to LT. Whether or not the personnell got better or worse is moot. A great deal of an Offensive Lines success stems from chemistry. This group will not have it for some time. Another factor here is projected starting G Bruce Nelson just underwent hip surgery and is expected to miss June mini-camps and a large portion of training camp as well. This very easily could be a shaky unit for 2004.

Weak Schedule
Davis faced bottom ten rush defenses seven times in 2003.
ATL (29th) 21 Rushes for 153yds - 7.3Ave
NO (27th) 20 Rushes for 159yds - 5.3Ave
NO (27th) 31 Rushes for 178yds - 5.7Ave
HOU (31st) 30 Rushes for 153yds - 5.1Ave
WAS (24th) 28 Rushes for 92yds - 3.3Ave
PHI (22nd) 23 Rushes for 115yds - 5.0Ave
ATL (29th) 24 Rushes for 81yds - 3.4Ave
Average Defense Rankings of 27th
TOTALS - 187 RUSHES FOR 931 YARDS AND 5.0AVE
Plus 6 of his 8 TD's came within these 7 games.

Top 3 Rush Defenses
Jax (2nd) 22 Rushes for 111yds - 5.0Ave
Ten (1st) 11 Rushes for 20yds - 1.8Ave
Dal (3rd) 26 Rushes for 59yds - 2.3Ave
TOTALS - 59 Rushes for 190yds - 3.0Ave
Also note that the JAX game was week one. So it's safe to assume the Jaguars were still finding their rythem.

Clearly Davis feasted on weak foes to put together an impressive stat line. But against the big dogs he tucked tail and couldn't even run!

The Wall
Stephen Davis has some big games in '03. Seven games over 100 yards, five of which were over the 140 mark. But as the season wore on... SD wore down. After week 9 Davis only topped the century mark one time (against PHI WK13 for 115). It is easy to see that Davis hit the wall and hit it hard.

No Hands
Davis has never been much of a receiving threat. This was again proven by his 14 catch season which brought his career total to 160. That is kind of scary. Especially considering Foster had 26 in a lot less time and is already a more proven receiving threat than Davis ever was. That could lead to third down duties permenantly being placed with Foster. Whcih would make Davis a two down back at best.

Also with hands is fumbling. So lets take a peak at these as well. Since 2000 Stephen Davis is responsible for losing 14 fumbles. Exactly TWO less than Tiki Barber's 16! Yeah, Tiki, the guy everyone loves to hate for his fumbilitis. TWO LESS AIN'T MUCH BOYS!

DeShaun Foster
This is the man that was drafted at the top of round two to be this teams franchise back. Then, bam, a freak knee injury sidelines him and the Cats plans. So they, out of concern, go out and sign Davis.

Well, now Foster is back. He proved last year that the injury is no longer a concern and he is ready to rock. He's six years younger than Davis, more explosive and a much better receiver. He is also only roughly 8 pounds lighter. I think the idea is he's too small. But ESPN lists him at 6'0" and 222lbs. While Davis is listed as 6'0" and 230lbs. We're talking about 0 inches and 8 pounds. Foster is also signed through the 2005 season. Which means his payday is coming. I think it's safe to say the Cats are going to want to see what Foster can do before it's time to pay him or lose him. Think more Barlow/Hearst then Jordan/Martin. Davis doesn't have the HOF ties to the Panthers like Martin does with the Jets.

Bottom Line Time:
ESPN Insider lists Davis as their number 13 RB.
But personally I think that to be pretty high. I like him around the 15-20 mark probably closer to 20. There is just too many other backs with more upside than Davis. Again he is an excellent number three back and maybe a shaky two if he falls to you a few rounds down... nothing more!

"TSN's Dan Pompei reports even though RB Stephen Davis was fantastic for the Panthers last season, he will be on the field less this season. The Panthers intend to get the ball more to RB DeShaun Foster. The plan is for Foster to play about 50 percent of the time, and the two won't be on the field at the same time very often because neither is much of a blocker. Who plays when will be determined by the personnel groupings and the type of plays called. Davis has not complained about sharing the ball."

Need I say more?