Ricky Williams is the player in question.

TenTimes is FOR Williams being a valuable fantasy RB this season
wbfoley is AGAINST Williams being a valuable fantasy RB this season

Do your best to convince us your side is the right one.

"He who has begun has half done. Dare to be wise; begin!"
--Horace

I'll start us off...


Ricky Williams' 2003 season was a bust? Ok well, he did have some pretty poor weeks and he did finish well below where he was projected, but that is because he was probably overrated last year after having a career season included rushing for 4.8 ypc in 2002.

But Ricky Williams did have 7 games of 100 rushing yards or more, and scored in 9 different games. Not only that, but his rushing attempts were up slightly from 2002, and they have gone up every year since his rookie season. He's had 3 straight seasons without injury so I think we can put the injury concerns to bed.

So let's see, the rushing attempts were there, the TDs were there, the injuries were absent, why exactly was last year a bust? One reason. Ricky Williams averaged less than 4.0 ypc for the first time since his rookie season, he had 3.8. I wouldn't necessarily put the blame on Ricky Williams though, at least not a majority of it. He is still in the best shape of his life and is very capable of toting the rock, no I'd blame a poor offensive line and a passing game which leaves a lot to be desired.

O-LINE: Well, Miami has tackled that problem by adding OT Vernon Carey "a devastating run blocker" from the University of Miami with the 19th pick in the first round. Carey is alongside Shaun Andrews of Arkansas as the 2nd/3rd best offensive tackle in this years draft and

PASSING: The passing game still has a long way to go, but they did add David Boston to the mix which will only help. Boston was held back in San Diego by Shottenheimer, in Miami I believe he'll get his chance to shine and more importantly keep opposing defenses from stacking 8 in the box.

Ricky did have a decent year last year, just not what people were expecting after 2002. To me, the Dolphins needed to significantly upgrade 3 areas on the field(OL, QB, WR), which(imo) they only made major strides in one of those areas.

QB - AJ Feely, are you kidding me? This is a lateral move at BEST when compared to Fiedler(though Ricky may get a few more goaline TD looks if Fiedler isn't in the game to vulture them away). Neither one will cause the defenses to move out of the box to stop Ricky.

WR - David Boston(while he still does have some talent) is hardly what he use to be. You know he will miss a game or four from injury during the season, as well as piss off the entire coaching staff in the process. He played on a team with a terrible defense last year, so he should of had a ton more yardage from garbage time then he did(880yds). This is a marginal upgrade at best for the Dolphins.

OL - To me this is the only goal the Dolphins were able to make any headway(sp?). They drafted three rookies this year(G, G, C) to help bolster their pretty porous line. Even if the players they drafted end up being decent, I would be surprised if they could gel together this year. OLs usually take at least a year or two before they start working well together.

Bottom line: No one fears the Dolphins passing attack, so defenses will continue to stack the box against Ricky until Miami can prove they can beat teams with their inept passing game.

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Originally posted by wbfoley:
WR - David Boston(while he still does have some talent) is hardly what he use to be. You know he will miss a game or four from injury during the season, as well as piss off the entire coaching staff in the process. He played on a team with a terrible defense last year, so he should of had a ton more yardage from garbage time then he did(880yds). This is a marginal upgrade at best for the Dolphins.

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Is it really a surprise that David Boston didn't do well in San Diego, I mean Shottenheimer is death to a passing game, you saw how Eli wanted NOTHING to do with the Chargers orginization and he was very public about his opinions.

Shottenheimer has coached 17 seasons in the NFL, San Diego Chargers from 2002-03, Washington Redskins in 2001, Kansas City Chiefs from 1989-98, and Cleveland Browns from 1985-88. In those 17 seasons Shotty has had a grand total of *2* seasons in which a WR has had over 1000 yards, and only *1* season where a WR has had over 70 receptions. When taking the top receiver in terms of yardage and the top receiver in terms of recpetions from each of his 17 seasons, you get an average of 52 receptions for 787 yards over Shott's coaching career. C'mon, is it really a suprirse that David Boston suffered in San Diego? As for the problems with the coaches, those weren't around in Arizona so I have to believe they were caused by the San Diego coaching staff, not Boston. It was probably because Boston wasn't getting the ball as much as he should have been. He goes 6'2 240, he has shown the ability to physically have his way with most any DB in the NFL, he should AND WILL see a much more significant role in Miami's offense and will put up better numbers than he did in either Arizona and especially San Diego.

I do have to agree with you on the injury concerns, Boston has missed games in each of the past 2 seasons, but he did manage to play in 14 last year so it's not ALL that significant when all it means is that the passing game will have to lean more heavily towards either Chambers or McMicheal (both very capable) for just 2 games.

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QB - AJ Feely, are you kidding me? This is a lateral move at BEST when compared to Fiedler(though Ricky may get a few more goaline TD looks if Fiedler isn't in the game to vulture them away). Neither one will cause the defenses to move out of the box to stop Ricky.

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Are we talking about the same Feeley who came in for the Philadelphia Eagles late in the season back in 2002 when McNabb went down to injury and won his first 4 games as a starter? You've gotta be pretty cool under pressure to do that, in the midst of a playoff race, with the Eagles fans breathing down your neck. Feeley hasn't shown much to the casual NFL observer but at the end of that season Feeley was pursued by a few NFL teams because they could see his value, and obviously there was value there because the Eagles weren't willing to let their backup go. Now he's in Miami and has a chance to prove those 4 games in Philly were no fluke. It's not a sure bet, maybe not even a safe bet, but I bet almost any Dolphin fan would tell you they're excited about the change and excited about Feeley's potential.

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OL - To me this is the only goal the Dolphins were able to make any headway(sp?). They drafted three rookies this year(G, G, C) to help bolster their pretty porous line. Even if the players they drafted end up being decent, I would be surprised if they could gel together this year. OLs usually take at least a year or two before they start working well together

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The drafting of Vernon Carey wasn't the only addition they made. Ruddy, Perry, and Dixon were all released by the Dolphins after poor 2003 seasons and Wade was lost to free agency. They brought in St. Clair from the Rams and McIntosh who will be a force if he can get past ankle problems. The Dolphins also signed Jeno from the Panthers who will add depth to the middle of the line. Also last seasons 3rd round pick has a year of experience and will improve.

Carey will step in to the right guard slot and allow St. Clair to move over to the left side (an upgrade). These guys haven't played together yet but as the season goes along they will gel and only get better.

I meant to bring this up before, but I might as well now with the news. The OC is new(they just changed the coach again) and might cause some issues with the offense working from the get go. Norv Turner(aka the fantasy RB machine) left to head to Oakland. This will definitely hurt Ricky's numbers(carries and yards) as Norv was big on working a primary ball-carrier.

Feeley may have won some games, but that doesn't mean he will scare anyone enough not to load the box against Ricky. Feeley might be an upgrade for the team to win, but I don't think he will change much fantasy wise. People will still key heavily on Ricky until the passing game shows they can be a threat to the defense.

Boston not only has injury problems, but his attitude is crap. I think Marty ball and his attitude kept him from doing anything of note in San Diego. It may change in Miami since they are a much better team, but when he doesn't get the ball enough he is going to start complaining. Once that happens it will be all downhill for him in Miami.

Miami just didn't improve enough in the passing game to cause anyone not to just key on Ricky again. I can see similar numbers to last year, but with fewer yards, but maybe an extra TD or two(assuming Fiedler doesn't start).

I've got a quick question for you foley since you seem to think the passing game is the key here.

What was different about the passing game from 2002 to 2003? In 2002 (when Williams had his career year including 4.8 ypc) the Dolphins ranked 27th in the league in passing with 3069 yards. In 2003 when Williams dropped to 3.8 ypc, the Dolphins passing game was only slightly worse, throwing for 3001 yards and ranking 26th in the league.

I don't buy the argument that Williams' production is dependant on the passing game. The passing game from 2002 to 2003 was VERY similar, yet Ricky's ypc fell off by a yard per carry.

I stand by my argument that Williams production in 2004 is almost solely dependant on the offensive line. The addition of Boston will only help Williams, but it's not the reason Williams will be back to atleast 4.3 ypc and 1500 yards rushing, the main reason will be the additions to offensive line which I've already addressed.

To me it seems Norv and Ricky took the AFC by surprise their first year in Miami. The second year people seemed to realize that all Miami has is Ricky for an offensive threat, and he still did well with 1300 and 9 TDs, but not the monster numbers he is capable of. I think you are under estimating how good of a fantasy RB coach Norv is.
Yds TD
1991(OC Dal) - E Smith 1563 12
1992(OC Dal) - E Smith 1713 18
1993(OC Dal) - E Smith 1486 9
1994(HC Wsh) - R Ervins 650 3
1995(HC Wsh) - T Allen 1309 10
1996(HC Wsh) - T Allen 1353 21
1997(HC Wsh) - T Allen 724 4
1998(HC Wsh) - T Allen 700 2
1999(HC Wsh) - S Davis 1405 17
2000(HC Wsh) - S Davis 1318 11
2001(OC SD) - LT2 1236 10
2002(OC Miami)- Ricky 1853 16
2003(OC Miami)- Ricky 1372 9

Notes:
1991 - In 1990, E Smith had under 1000 yds and Dallas was 26th overall offense.
1994 - was his first year as Head Coach and he had zero talent on offense.
1997 - Used S Davis/T Allen this year. Combined 1291yds 7TDs.
1998 - Used S Hicks/T Allen this year. Combined 1133yds 10TDs.
2001 - In 2000, SD was 31st in the nfl in rushing, though they didn't have LT2 at the time.

Norv leaving along with no passing attack will cause Ricky's number to stay the same as last year or maybe a bit less.

edit: Stupid formatting. First number is yds, 2nd is TDs.

Only thing I have left is that Williams gets Cleveland (23rd against the rush last year) in week 16, which is Superbowl weekend in most fantasy leagues.

I've laid what I feel are most of the important supporting facts out there.