Tom Brady is the player in question.

Bullies is FOR Brady being a valuable fantasy QB this season
Crazy Carl is AGAINST Brady being a valuable fantasy QB this season

Do your best to convince us your side is the right one.

"He who has begun has half done. Dare to be wise; begin!"
--Horace

Well, lets get right to the numbers first.

2001, 2843 yards, 18 TD, 12 INT
2002, 3764 yards, 28 TD, 14 INT
2003, 3620 yards, 23 TD, 12 INT

Talk about consistency! Never more than 14 INT's in his career? And he'll only get better. Not to mention a career completion percentage of 61.8.

I think it's obvious Brady is one of the best QB's in the game today, if not the best, when it comes purely down to decision-making and winning. Also, he's a perennial top-ten fantasy QB. This year however, I expect him to move into the top 5 and never look back.

Here's why. With Antowain Smith, the Pats have always "gotten by" with the running game. Brady has had to be at his best to find the open receiver, because you couldn't count on Smith to open things up consistently. And Brady has always been up to the challenge. Now, when you consider that Troy Brown has been injured or M.I.A. much of the last three years, it makes Brady's numbers that much more incredible. He's been doing it with youngsters such as Branch and Givens, who by the way are both in their 3rd year and coming off of solid 2nd seasons. These two are both ready to explode this year, and become one of the best 1-2 tandems in the game. Throw in 2nd year man Bethel Johnson, and you have a nucleus that could dominate for years to come.

But WR's aside, the biggest reason that Brady will enjoy his best season ever, is Corey Dillon. The Pats will finally have a dominant runner who will command the respect of defenses and take pressure off of Brady to win games single-handedly. What QB doesn't want his job to be easier.

Will his stats suffer with Dillon you may ask? If history is any indication, his stats will soar. Take Manning-Edge, Culpepper-Bennett (or Robert smith before him), Green-Holmes, Bulger or Warner-Faulk, Hasselbeck-Alexander, Favre-Green, Brooks-McAllister. Each of these QB's has had big passing seasons with a stud RB behind them.

So, I think it's obvious that with a stud RB and improved young WR's, the already dependable Brady is poised to crack the top-5 fantasy QB's this year. Easily.

Golden Boy Tom Brady is a terrific NFL QB but as a fantasy prospect he is anything but gold. Lets look at those stats again…
His best year was in 2002 when he topped out at 28 TDs; Brady has never been an elite fantasy QB in large part because of his lack of TDs. In his other two years as a starter he had 18 & 23 Tds… you can typically get from a late flier/waiver QB. So what is special about the year that Brady had the 28 Tds? The Patriots running game was in the gutter. Antowain Smith coming off his career year didn’t manage 1000yds and only had 6TDs. While it is often true that a running game opens things up for QBs and helps them gain even better stats, the opposite is true for Brady. The biggest thing a running game does is help a QB limit his INTs which keeps him on the field heading toward the end zone. Well as you stated yourself Brady has never had more than 14 INTs so there isn’t likely to be much change in that total. Belichick is an extremely conservative, defensive minded coach that more than happy to simply run the ball and take a FG then to take any risks in the redzone. If we see Brady’s numbers drop when Antowain Smith does well, what do you think will happen when Corey Dillon starts running all over defenses?
Brady will most likely finish at around 3000yds and 18-21TDs and that hardly qualifies as Top 10 fantasy QB numbers.

Oh and one more thing… all the other tandems you mentioned Manning/Edge, Warner/Faulk, etc all have one thing in common--HORRIBLE defenses. And considering NE has what is likely the best defense in the league their offense will not spend near as much time on the field or need to score as many pts as all those others.

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Brady has never been an elite fantasy QB in large part because of his lack of TDs. In his other two years as a starter he had 18 & 23 Tds… you can typically get from a late flier/waiver QB.

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Okay, the 18 TD season was his first year as a starter, replacing Bledsoe. I don't think you can ask alot more from a first year QB. That was also Antowain Smith's big year. They were clearly leaning on Smith to make it easy on Brady. As for the 23 TD's in 2003, that was ninth best in the league, and that's only because three guys had one more than him at 24. His yardage total was 6th best. So, he clearly IS top ten fantasy QB material. From these rankings he would only need to throw for a couple hundred more yards and a few more TD's to be with the top five, which isn't unrealistic. A late round flier in a 16-man league? Not a chance.

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Belichick is an extremely conservative, defensive minded coach that more than happy to simply run the ball and take a FG then to take any risks in the redzone.

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So is Tony Dungy. Yet Manning threw for 4,267 yards and 29 TD's last year. And the Colts were 7th in total defense. And yes, Edge still had a good year with 1,200 yards rushing and 12 TD's.

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If we see Brady’s numbers drop when Antowain Smith does well, what do you think will happen when Corey Dillon starts running all over defenses?

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Again, Brady's numbers didn't DROP when Smith played well, it was Brady's first year at the helm. His numbers were about what you'd expect from a first year starter, with many fewer INT's.

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And considering NE has what is likely the best defense in the league their offense will not spend near as much time on the field or need to score as many pts as all those others.

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I'm scratching my head on this one. When you have the best defense in the league, your offense is on the field LONGER. That's because your defense is "three-and-outing" everybody. And what coach doesn't put points on the board because his defense is awesome and they "don't need them"??? Late in the game in a blowout maybe, but otherwise that just doesn't happen.

If a QB is throwing for barely over 20 TDs then he is middle of the pack even if most QBs are there too. There are just too many "average" QBs these days to bother drafting one high on name recognition alone. The only thing that separates a QB and makes them a top 5 fantasy talent is if they are consisently giving you 25+TDs and/or often approach 30+. Sure only a few QBs only outnumbered his passing stats by 1 TD but don't forget about the rushing numbers. Here are the combined TD numbers and how Brady ranks:
32 Favre
29 Manning, Culpepper
28 Hasselbeck, Hasselbeck
26 TGreen, Brooks, Kitna, BJ, Bulger
24 Brady

That puts Brady at number 11 in TDs. And if you factor in that many leagues value passing TDs less than other TDs then Brady loses even more value. Sure Brady throws for lots of yards but again most leagues only give 1pt/25yds and it takes a lot of yards to really make a difference.

Brady has had one year with over 23 TDs and that was the year he attempted over 600 passes. Which following that year Brady developed shoulder problems that are still a concern even now. You simply cannot count of Brady giving you more than 20-25 AT BEST and more realistic is you get 18-22 TDs.

As for the great defense comments.... You know what I mean. Sure great defenses will "3-and-out" a lot, but teams with great defenses don't score 30+pts a week. The offense doesn't need to score as many so the offense becomes a clock-killing unit rather a point scoring unit. If you are up by 10pts in the 4th quarter coaches will simply run, run, and run again and dare you to beat their defense rather than chance throwing the ball and allowing a turnover to get the opposing team back in the game. Now that NE has a workhorse back like Dillon expect to see a lot of this. It isn't that you try not to score but if you understand football you know that running out the clock is one of the main reason teams are concerned with a good running game.