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Picture of TenTimes
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Here's the deal: I put in a $20 3-team parlay to win 114 yesterday afternoon and I've hit on the first of the three games (Oakland A's over the Twins). The remaining games are Braves/Giants at 4:00 ET and Cards/DBacks at 7:30 ET. (I picked Braves and Cards)

Now what should I do from here to maximize my profits no matter what happens? You seem to be the master of offsetting bets so I'd like an opinion.

Originally I was thinking I would wait to see if it looks like I'll cover the Braves/Giants game and then bet a load on the DBacks so I'd win either way, but the game I'm most worried about is that Braves game. Should I "pretend" like the Braves game is the 3rd and final game and bet big on the Giants to offset that one?

What would you do in these 2 situations:

A) You're confident the Braves will cover and will only act on the final game of the 3

B) You're not so sure about the Braves, though you are confident in the Cards.

I was also thinking about maybe parlaying the DBacks and Giants because it would be my luck to miss almost every game of a parlay, but still, I do like the Cards against Batista even if they lost Rolen.

 
Posts: 6962 | Location: san antonio, tx, u.s. | Registered: April 21, 2000Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
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Alright here's what I did, let me know if it makes sense or if you would have done something different:

2-team parlay: Giants & D-Backs 10/35
Straight Bet: Cards 15/19.5

This makes my total amount bet $45

Now there are 4 different ways these 2 games could play out:

Braves/Cards win   20/115    Net of 125
Braves/DBacks win Net of -45
Giants/Cards win 15/19.5 Net of -10
Giants/DBacks win 10/35 Net of 0



Hmm.. I just noticed I left the Braves/DBacks possibility uncovered, and of the 4 scenarios only 1 gives me the chance to win.

Ok I give up, what'd I do wrong?



 
Posts: 6962 | Location: san antonio, tx, u.s. | Registered: April 21, 2000Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
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Gratned this is easier if there is only one game to offset, which in my case in football is the Sunday night game. I used to pick all early games and 1 4:15 game, but I got screwed with a few long-running games.

My experience is not on the double offset, but I think I would have gone a different way. A $20/52 (not sure of the exact odds) on Giants/Cards gives you a few options. If the Giants win, you lose your shot at $114, but then will be guaranteed to get your $20 back by playing D'Backs to offset your 2-team open par. But you'll be pulling for ATL, and once they win, then put $60 on Arizona and be guaranteed to win about $20 on the day. Not a huge payoff, but a payoff none the less.

So that's what I would have done, but now seeing what you did, why not throw another parlay on Giants/Cards. I'll take a look at the odds in a little while, get my calculator wink and post more.

One last thing, all of this was based solely on winning money, not what I think will happen . .. that's the beauty of the offset, play the ones you like and throw in the last game of the night that you don't care about . . . then bet the other way to ensure a win. So offsets excluded, I like the Braves and Cards.

Hope that made sense.
 
Posts: 2223 | Location: Columbia, SC | Registered: September 18, 2001Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
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I don't know, I went through a few different scenarios and what I came up with was a combination of trying to cover myself and avoid things I thought wouldn't happen.

Half of me doesn't think the DBacks have a chance against the Cardinals, and the other half of me thinks that Maddux alone is enough to beat the Giants.

Point is, it's really hard to make an offset bet when you're convinced you've made the right play.. I should have waited around to see what you thought of the situation but atleast I'm learning wink

In any event, go Braves! big grin

 
Posts: 6962 | Location: san antonio, tx, u.s. | Registered: April 21, 2000Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
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Well the Braves are up 6-2 in the 9th, looks like they'll cover. Once I get paid for Bowling Green (thank you Glassman) I'm going to make a $25 bet on the DBacks to offset the parlay that will hit if the Cards win so it looks like this for me:

Cards win: I take 144.50
DBacks win: I take 49

With the 25 on the DBacks I'll have invested $70 total on the parlay and offsets, and if they do happen to win I'll still end up losing, but I'm not going to play to win either way because I'm pretty confident in the Cards and I'm looking to hit big with them. Besides, I hit big on Bowling Green -24 over Ohio (they're up 72-14 in the 4th eek big grin) so I can afford to risk a 'lil for the big payout.

 
Posts: 6962 | Location: san antonio, tx, u.s. | Registered: April 21, 2000Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
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Glad it worked out for you, Ten. I haven't looked around too much today, but where did Glass' Bowling Green tip come from?
 
Posts: 2223 | Location: Columbia, SC | Registered: September 18, 2001Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
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From the afternoon chat session on Friday. Bowling Green and Missouri both won me some serious jack yesterday. Put down $100 on each of them to cover.

Lost Alabama covering, but that loss was offset by the Fresno State pick.

THis is the first weekend I have bet on college, and I have to tell you, especially this year, I think the college game is where you have the best chance to make your money this year. That Bowling Green game was a gimme at A 24 point spread.

 
Posts: 6983 | Location: St. Louis, MO. USA | Registered: April 19, 2001Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
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As it turns out, I didn't put that $25 on the DBacks like I said I was going to, my Bowling Green win didn't pay off in time and my account was empty, but it was for the better. What a game! With 2 outs and a 1 run lead the Cards manage to score when a fly ball sails *just* out of the reach of the diving outfielder. (Remember they are giving up 1.5 runs, so if the OF makes that catch I don't cover)

Pretty good weekend for me, I netted about 170 on baseball, if UT had covered I would have hit a 4 team parlay for 145.

Glass, just make sure to keep the college locks coming wink

 
Posts: 6962 | Location: san antonio, tx, u.s. | Registered: April 21, 2000Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
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Depending on how my NFL picks do today, I will be over $1000.00 after this weekend. I am kicking myself for not taking Eli and Ole Miss to cover against Florida. I was scared that the Florida that played Tennessee would show up. Oh well. smile

 
Posts: 6983 | Location: St. Louis, MO. USA | Registered: April 19, 2001Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
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Mizzou loses on a fake field goal by Oklahoma and gets their aces handed to them by Bowling Green. Other than Marshall, Bowling Green should beat every team they play in there conference by 20+ points. They may be a team to bet on pretty much the rest of the way.

 
Posts: 6983 | Location: St. Louis, MO. USA | Registered: April 19, 2001Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
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I like Saturdays better myself. I wish I could have talked you out of playing Bama . . . I know I'm biased but I was all over my alma mater on that one. I only played it on the money line and enjoyed the payoff.

South Carolina was a lock against that bad Miss. State team, too.

Looks like we need a college thread for next week.
 
Posts: 2223 | Location: Columbia, SC | Registered: September 18, 2001Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
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I have always been so busy watching potential NFL prospects on Saturday that I really never paid attention to the lines. By the way, Justin Gage is starting to look more and more like he may be the most NFL ready receiver in college. 122 yards and a TD on 9 receptions against a tough OU defense. He plays just like Boston. Don't forget he is a power foward for the Mizzou basketball team.

I could put the lines up the way I do the NFL without a problem, but I will start to delete off some of the older weekly lines as These are images I am making so the presentation looks better. If I do college, I will have way too much space used on my web host for just FI posts.

So, if you do not mind having the entire week 1 odds to refer back to, then I will start deleting the weekly lines posts after about 2 weeks. I am not sure why I need to keep the week 1 and 2 lines up anyway.

 
Posts: 6983 | Location: St. Louis, MO. USA | Registered: April 19, 2001Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
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