Steven Jackson is clearly the better player but in my Fantasy League we can have one holdover per season and the same player can not be held over twice.

Steven Jackson will cost me a 1st Round pick and he will go in the Top 3 picks. Laurence Maroney will cost me a 5th Round pick and the lowest I've seen him projected is in the 2nd Round.

Is the value for Maroney to good to pass up or should I go with the more productive player? Currently we have to decide our holdover prior to selecting a draft order. I'm going to try and speak with the other owners about changing this rule.

Worst case; I could holdover SJ and end up with the 1st or 2nd pick or I could holdover Maroney and end up with the 12th pick.
Best Case; I could holdover Maroney and end up with the 1st or 2nd pick.

Don't even think about it Jackson is the guy to keep.

When I first saw the thread title I thought "this guy is nuts". But reading the full thread, this is quite the delima. If you knew your draft spot, it would probably make this a lot easier decision.

As it is, with everyone keeping one player, it really is giving up a 2nd round pick for Jackson or a 6th round pick for Maroney. Looking up a series of projections for these guys, you are talking a difference of about 50 to 80 fantasy points. The question is, can you make that up with the difference in draft picks you would have?

I'm leaning toward the idea of keeping Jackson but have a couple of questions first:

1 - What's your scoring system? It may not matter much but having full info is always key to good advice.

2 - Who do you project the other 11 keepers to be? Based on your wording, I'm guessing there are 12 teams.

Maroney will team up nicely with whoever you want in the 1st round.

You lose your first round pick for S Jackson, so possibly not picking until 24th....24 plus the 12 that have been kept.

To me it all depends on where you draft in round 1.....if you are early, I'd go Maroney and not think twice about it, grab a good #2 RB and go from there.
If you keep Jackson, I dont know who you'll end up getting......probably about the 25th-30th rb

quote:

1 - What's your scoring system? It may not matter much but having full info is always key to good advice.

2 - Who do you project the other 11 keepers to be? Based on your wording, I'm guessing there are 12 teams.

1.ReTD - Receiving TD 6 points
Plus 1 point for a ReTD of 30 to 49 Yds
Plus 1.5 points for a ReTD of 50 to 74 Yds
Plus 2.0 points for a ReTD of 75 to 99 Yds

Recpt - Reception 1+ Recpt = .5 points for every 1 Recpt
Plus a .25 point bonus @ 6+ Recpt
Plus a .5 point bonus @ 8+ Recpt
Plus a .75 point bonus @ 10+ Recpt
Plus a 1 point bonus @ 12+ Recpt
Plus a 1 point bonus @ 15+ Recpt

RuTD - Rushing TD 6 points
Plus 1 point for a RuTD of 30 to 49 Yds
Plus 1.25 points for a RuTD of 50 to 74 Yds
Plus 1.50 points for a RuTD of 75 to 99 Yds

RuYd - Rushing Yards 0+ RuYds = .5 points for every 15 RuYds
Plus a 1 point bonus @ 100+ RuYd
Plus a .25 point bonus @ 150+ RuYd
Plus a .25 point bonus @ 200+ RuYd
Plus a .25 point bonus @ 250+ RuYd

2. 12 teams (16 rounds)
2 New owners (no holdovers), as for holdovers I'm assuming (Player Round Cost) Joseph Addai 4th, Deion Branch 6th or Chad Johnson 1st, Carson Palmer 1st or Willis McGahee 1st, Maurice Jones Drew 14th, Drew Brees 8th. Only guesses, all owners have been pretty tight lipped.

Seeing that it appears that most top prospects won't be kept, I would lean toward keeping Maroney and the first round pick. If LT, LJ, Gore, etc are all really going to be available (I assume they were kept last year), then a first round pick + Maroney should be worth more than Jackson and no pick until the 2nd. I will note, that as I understand it, 10 teams can keep a player but you only listed what 5 of the other 9 teams will do.

The one thing I think people don't pay enough attention to in keeper leagues is what the other owners are most likely to do. This being only a 1 keeper, I would generally say it doesn't matter much but since the keeper impacts the draft pick lost, this is pretty important information to have. If you have 2 or 3 teams that you can be confident will keep a player that forces them to lose their 1st round pick and you know/strongly believe that LJ, LT, SJ and Gore are all going to be available, then I think it is far more worth it to gamble that you can get one of those guys in the draft.

For just those 4 guys, you may be able to get one with as late as the 6th or 7th pick if 2 or 3 guys don't have a first rounder. That's about a 50% shot to land a top 4/5 RB to go with Maroney. On the other hand, if you can only be comfortable knowing that SJ would be the only top guy available, then tossing him back probably isn't a good idea unless you know that almost all of the league will miss their first round picks.

As a final note, they may be about the oddest scoring system I've ever seen. Do you get points for receiving yards too or are reception points totally based on number of catches? Do I understand it right that a player with 10 catches would get 6 points? ((10 * .5) + .25 + .5 + .75)

I think this is just an average ddraft position problem. Without knowing your pick position, you can assume a middle spot. Jackson's ADP is 2 and Maroney is generally about 10. So the question becomes, would you rather have the 2nd and 54.5 picks (Jackson and pick 54.5) or the 10th and 6.5 picks (Maroney and picks 6 or 7)? If you put those values in any draft pick calculator, I think it's clear the Maroney choice is the better option.

The problem here is that you could keep Maroney, and still not get a great #2 based on draft position. Yes, who you get may be better than what you get by keeping SJ, but by how much? There are only a small handful of studs. After that, the curve isn't that great. Looking at SJ's numbers from last year, he has turned the corner and is one of the elite now. We still don't know what Maroney is capable of as a full-time starter. SJ is alot closer to LT than Maroney is, and having an LT type or close can win you several weeks alone. I'd go ahead and keep the difference-maker for the one year and see what happens.

quote:

Originally posted by BuckeyeArt:
I think this is just an average ddraft position problem. Without knowing your pick position, you can assume a middle spot. Jackson's ADP is 2 and Maroney is generally about 10. So the question becomes, would you rather have the 2nd and 54.5 picks (Jackson and pick 54.5) or the 10th and 6.5 picks (Maroney and picks 6 or 7)? If you put those values in any draft pick calculator, I think it's clear the Maroney choice is the better option.

Is that suppose to be a 24.5 instead of 54.5? If not, where are you getting your numbers from? Going with the numbers you have and the fact that it doesn't appear that a ton of elite players will be kept and it is more like 18.5 or so.

Maroney costs a 5th, so I assumed 54.5 (mid 5th). Jackson costs a 1st, so I used 6.5 (mid 1st). So you either keep the 1st (6.5) and Maroney (10) or the 5th (54.5) and Jackson (2).

Even if you assume that the other teams keep one of the top 11 guys (which it doesn't look to be the case), you can add 11 to each pick and it becomes a 1st (17.5) and Maroney (10) for a 5th (65.5) and Jackson (2). While it's a little closer, it still favors keeping Maroney.

Of course, this assumes his values equal the players' ADP's. It all depends where he has them ranked.

You're both right, it's just 2 different ways of looking at it. I think it's just easier to look at what you end up getting as your next player.

I think with the incomplete information that's been given, it's still too hard to tell. Without the information on the remaining 5 or so teams that you didn't mention, it's tough to gauge what's available. Overall, however, I think Maroney is the guy to keep. I think the drop in what you get in the 1st round, considering keepers is significant when you get into the 2nd. Especially given the chance that you could get another bonafide stud, I think it's a very reasonable gamble.

Also, don't forget Maroney's future keeper value as well. We're overlooking the fact that if he DOES do well this year (which he very well should), then he has him as another keeper option the next. I'm assuming to keep Maroney will only cost him a 3rd round pick making him a bargain 2 years in a row.

Worst case scenario if you keep Maroney is that you end up with what would be a mid 2nd rounder. Of the potential keepers you listed from the 6 above teams, only Addai is a top 10 pick. Therefore, even if the other 5 teams keep the top 5 RB's and you end up with the 12th pick in the 1st (again, worst case scenario), then you still end up with a mid 2nd round RB like T. Jones or Henry or Benson or an elite WR. Worst case with keeping LJ is that you end up with what would be a mid 3rd round pick where you've missed any chance at a decent #2 RB and may lose out on the elite WR's (esp. since most are being kept).

I think Maroney is the way to go.

quote:

Originally posted by BuckeyeArt:
Maroney costs a 5th, so I assumed 54.5 (mid 5th). Jackson costs a 1st, so I used 6.5 (mid 1st). So you either keep the 1st (6.5) and Maroney (10) or the 5th (54.5) and Jackson (2).

Even if you assume that the other teams keep one of the top 11 guys (which it doesn't look to be the case), you can add 11 to each pick and it becomes a 1st (17.5) and Maroney (10) for a 5th (65.5) and Jackson (2). While it's a little closer, it still favors keeping Maroney.

Of course, this assumes his values equal the players' ADP's. It all depends where he has them ranked.

Gotcha, I just misunderstood what you were saying. I was reading it as what is top 2 players was be - Jackson plus a mid 2nd rounder (on average) or Maroney and a mid first rounder.

quote:

Originally posted by gianmarco:
You're both right, it's just 2 different ways of looking at it. I think it's just easier to look at what you end up getting as your next player.

I think with the incomplete information that's been given, it's still too hard to tell. Without the information on the remaining 5 or so teams that you didn't mention, it's tough to gauge what's available. Overall, however, I think Maroney is the guy to keep. I think the drop in what you get in the 1st round, considering keepers is significant when you get into the 2nd. Especially given the chance that you could get another bonafide stud, I think it's a very reasonable gamble.

Also, don't forget Maroney's future keeper value as well. We're overlooking the fact that if he DOES do well this year (which he very well should), then he has him as another keeper option the next. I'm assuming to keep Maroney will only cost him a 3rd round pick making him a bargain 2 years in a row.

Worst case scenario if you keep Maroney is that you end up with what would be a mid 2nd rounder. Of the potential keepers you listed from the 6 above teams, only Addai is a top 10 pick. Therefore, even if the other 5 teams keep the top 5 RB's and you end up with the 12th pick in the 1st (again, worst case scenario), then you still end up with a mid 2nd round RB like T. Jones or Henry or Benson or an elite WR. Worst case with keeping LJ is that you end up with what would be a mid 3rd round pick where you've missed any chance at a decent #2 RB and may lose out on the elite WR's (esp. since most are being kept).

I think Maroney is the way to go.

I agree with your thinking but he can't keep Maroney 2 years in a row. In his original post, he states that a player can't be kept twice in a row.

Oooh...oops. I'll learn to read some day.

I still like Maroney for this scenario. That other tidbit was just a bonus.

If I were you I'd take the time to do a mock draft with your best guestimations for every owners keepers and their picks for the first 2 rounds. Do it twice, once where you keep Jackson and once where you keep Maroney. Evaluate where each scenario puts you after 2 rounds and go from there.


If you want to give us your best guess of who ever owner will be keeping and the draft order, we will help you with the mock drafts.