Looks like he might get his chance.

What's the outlook for 2008?

Flip a coin on him, but there really is no argument against his numbers. Even though he was coming in fresh most of the time his numbers are far better than anyone could expect.
He's on a bad team now, but ATL has always been a good rushing team. I would reach on him as a late round #1 just because of potential.

Turner is an enigma. He played well in cleanup in SD but what does that really mean? Not a whole lot in reality. He's basically untested. Can he handle a large amount of carries?

In a redraft I wouldn't take the chance.

In a dynasty he's already going to be on a roster and it won't matter. His trade value in that kind of league is uneven, meaning he's worth more to the one who owns him than what most if not all owners would pay to get him.

And that's what people said about Jordan when he went to OAK. He stinks now, but he was a top 10 back his first year as the full time guy. And Turner's backup numbers far exceed anything Jordan did. He's not a small back, he's even a little bigger than LT.

The following is what gian posted to convince me that Lewis was probably a mid #2 RB. So given the following RBs who could you push out to take a chance on his "potential" in the late first round? I may take a chance as a #2 but I really don't see enough guys to push down to make him a first round pick.

quote:

1. LT
2. AP
3. Westbrook
4. SJax
5. Addai
6. Gore
7. Portis
8. Lynch
9. Barber
10. MJD
11. Grant
12. McGahee
13. LJ
14. Bush
15. Ronnie Brown


Arguments could be made for Turner, Maroney, McFadden, and even Graham as well.

I'd bump LJ into the 10th spot on that list, but I wouldn't have any issues taking him over MJD, Grant, McGahee, Bush or Brown.

None of those guys can be counted on to anchor a FF team and win your league. I think Turner has the possibility to be in the top 5 and take on that role. The most you could hope for with the others is a top 10 finish. There are not many leagues won when your #1 back is trying to crack into the top 10.

He'll rank between 16-20 for most, but at that point in the draft it's better take a gamble on potential than settle for mediocre. That's why I would reach on him late in the first round at this point.

Looking at that list right now I would actually rank him 12th. Brown really has just as as much potential, he is an inj risk. But a risk I'd take at that point in the draft due to the monster numbers he posted pre-inj last year. I'd rank the bottom like this.

9 Barber
10 LJ
11 Brown
12 Turner
13 Grant - He hasn't played a full season yet either, so you can raise the same question of durability if you like. Without Favre I'd also expect the entire offense to slow down a bit.
14 McGahee - Big inj risk, and DEN RBs just never turn out like everyone thinks they will.
15 Bush - To spotty, only good in the open field and lacks durability.

I see no argument for Maroney in that list, not while he's in NE. He had a few good games at the end of last season but NE is to dynamic and never produces reliable FF RBs. McFadden is a complete unknown, that and a much bigger risk than Turner would be. It would be pretty tough to debate McFadden as a top 12 draft pick right now. Graham I could see an argument for, but he's another who never finished a season. I'm sure if you broke it down Turner would win that debate fairly easily.

quote:

Originally posted by Sportz Genius:

14 McGahee - Big inj risk, and DEN RBs just never turn out like everyone thinks they will.

You realize McGahee has never really been injured in the pros and has also never played in Denver, right?

p.s.--matter of personal preference, but I would never take Turner over either MJD or Grant.

I think Turner could very well be a fine pro, but in his 4 seasons he has never been anything more than a complimentary back. In 4 seasons, he doesn't have a season where he carried the ball 100 times. Is he capable of handling 2 to 3 times that load?

He also has been nearly non-existent in the passing game.

Atlanta was a solid running team until last season - whether that was the absence of Vick or bad OL play can be debated. Either way, it doesn't matter because it is likely that the running game wont re-emerge into the top 5.

There is no way I'd want Turner as my #1. To me, he is a low #2 option right now. I'd prefer to let someone else take the gamble any sooner than that.

quote:

Originally posted by Skip:
I think Turner could very well be a fine pro, but in his 4 seasons he has never been anything more than a complimentary back. In 4 seasons, he doesn't have a season where he carried the ball 100 times. Is he capable of handling 2 to 3 times that load?

He also has been nearly non-existent in the passing game.

Atlanta was a solid running team until last season - whether that was the absence of Vick or bad OL play can be debated. Either way, it doesn't matter because it is likely that the running game wont re-emerge into the top 5.

There is no way I'd want Turner as my #1. To me, he is a low #2 option right now. I'd prefer to let someone else take the gamble any sooner than that.

Agree completely. He's a nice option near the end of the 2nd round, but the late 1st/early 2nd is a BIG reach for him in either format (redraft or dynasty).

quote:

Originally posted by gianmarco:
You realize McGahee has never really been injured in the pros and has also never played in Denver, right?

p.s.--matter of personal preference, but I would never take Turner over either MJD or Grant.

Sorry, confused him with Henry. I still take Turner over McGahee. He's another top 10 possibility at best.
Parker should also be on that list probably dropping him down a slot.

I don't understand the "can't handle the load" argument. He's had four years of conditioning in the NFL, he's probably more prepared than most any other back taking on a starting role.
I realize his numbers could be a bit bloated as the backup, but they are absolutely sick. What does a guy have to do (who runs behind LT) to earn some respect?

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Sportz Genius,

quote:

Originally posted by Sportz Genius:
I don't understand the "can't handle the load" argument. He's had four years of conditioning in the NFL, he's probably more prepared than most any other back taking on a starting role.
I realize his numbers could be a bit bloated as the backup, but they are absolutely sick. What does a guy have to do (who runs behind LT) to earn some respect?

I'm not saying he won't be able to handle a full load, it's just that he hasn't proven that he can. You know as well as I do that some RBs wear down the defense as the game grinds on and some are the ones getting worn down. We don't know which of these Turner will be. Turner has been a spot player, 80 rushing attempts in a season is his high, 13 attempts is the most he's had in any game, and never more than 4 receptions in a season. Taking a RB in the late first that doesn't catch the ball too is a big risk and one I'm not willing to take.

quote:

Originally posted by Sportz Genius:
I don't understand the "can't handle the load" argument. He's had four years of conditioning in the NFL, he's probably more prepared than most any other back taking on a starting role.
I realize his numbers could be a bit bloated as the backup, but they are absolutely sick. What does a guy have to do (who runs behind LT) to earn some respect?

Simply put, have a great season.

There have been enough RBs in the past in similar situations that people clamoured about wanting to see in a starting role. Some succeed. Some fail. And some are hindered by the system they play in.

Take a look at gian's list at #13: Larry Johnson. It was not more than a couple seasons ago that some had LJ as a top 2 or 3 RB in fantasy sports. Has his talent diminished? No. Has the team around him? Definitely. And here he sits at #13 because of situation, not talent.

With that list, you can project the numbers these guys are going to put up. Not even mentioned there are Parker and Lewis, one coming off a "poor" season and the other a great one. Arguments can be made for them to be in the mix as well.

The RB pool is deep right now. Is Turner a top 10? Top 12? I don't have him that high on my list. I think he will be successful, but I don't project him as a top 10 back with the flood of other talent up there.

I think Turner is obviously a #1 in a dynasty format. I would think that you could get AP, Randy Moss or any top talent for him. He's probably worth at least a couple of #1 and #2 draft picks ;-)

Obviously guessing what Turner is going to do this season is a complete crap shoot given his limited playing time in the past. Some have said that they are going to run he and Norwood in the same style that Taylor and Jones-Drew are used in Jax. I think he's a perfect #3, thus my willingness to keep him in the FIDO league and see what happens. I think he is big enough to handle 20-25 touches per game, but his stats could suffer w/ the QB situation. There probably won't be much focus on the passing game by opposing defenses.

In a redraft, I would gamble on him for a #2 given his potential upside. I see him as a middle 3rd to middle 4th round pick in that format.

quote:

Originally posted by Astros:
I think Turner is obviously a #1 in a dynasty format. I would think that you could get AP, Randy Moss or any top talent for him. He's probably worth at least a couple of #1 and #2 draft picks ;-)

Obviously guessing what Turner is going to do this season is a complete crap shoot given his limited playing time in the past. Some have said that they are going to run he and Norwood in the same style that Taylor and Jones-Drew are used in Jax. I think he's a perfect #3, thus my willingness to keep him in the FIDO league and see what happens. I think he is big enough to handle 20-25 touches per game, but his stats could suffer w/ the QB situation. There probably won't be much focus on the passing game by opposing defenses.

In a redraft, I would gamble on him for a #2 given his potential upside. I see him as a middle 3rd to middle 4th round pick in that format.

Completely agree. Well, except for the 1st three sentences.

quote:

Originally posted by Astros:
I think Turner is obviously a #1 in a dynasty format. I would think that you could get AP, Randy Moss or any top talent for him. He's probably worth at least a couple of #1 and #2 draft picks ;-)

I'm thinking Turner AND a #1 might get you Norwood.

I agree with others who put him as a mid #2. The potential is there but so are the load questions. The last 2 playoff games, when he received the bulk of the carries, his performance was just ordinary. In fact, last year wasn't his best and his numbers were greatly skewed by one game against Denver. Out of the 17 games in which he had carries, he only averaged 4 ypc in 4 of them.

The problem I have is trying to figure out when they are going to use Norwood. The knock on him till now has been his blocking so imagining him as a 3rd down back just doesn't fit. I also can't see them not using him at least as much as last year. They'd be crazy not to find a way to get his 6 ypc into the game. I suppose it will be more like the Jones/Barber of a few years ago when Barber got 100-150 carries and Jones got the bulk. The difference though is Turner will get the goal-line carries (at least the few that there are). Because of the split, I think it limits Turner's upside. I see 275 carries, around 1100 yards, and 6-8 TD's.

The funny part about the "load" questions is that Norwood has almost as many carries in his 2 seasons as Turner has had in his 4. Yet, it has already been determined that he can't carry the load.